The monsoon rains this year continue to be unevenly distributed so far, resulting in floods in many parts of Gujarat, Bihar, West Bengal, Assam and eastern Uttar Pradesh while some pockets of south, central and northern regions remained ‘deficient’ zones. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the cumulative rainfall received till Wednesday across the country has been 94% of the bench mark Long Period Average (LPA), falling just below ‘normal’ level. Rainfall in a range of 96-104% of LPA is treated as ‘normal’. LPA rainfall is pegged at 89 cm, on the basis of average between 1951-2000. Region-wise, the north-west India and east and northeast have received ‘normal’ rainfall of 97% and 101% of LPA, respectively. The central India has received rains 91% of LPA, which falls on ‘below normal’ category. In case of southern peninsula, the rainfall so far has been 87% of LPA, which is in ‘deficient’ category.\
Out of the 36 sub-divisions in the country, five have received ‘excess’ rainfall while 21 got ‘normal’ rains so far while 10 have received ‘deficient’ rains. In terms of area, 18% of the country falls in ‘excess’ rainfall zone while 54% received ‘normal’ monsoon this year while 28% of areas fall in ‘deficient’ rainfall zones. Meanwhile, the met department has given forecast for heavy rainfall across the country in the next few days. “Heavy rains are likely in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, east Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Odisha, Assam, northeastern states, Goa, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, coastal Karnataka and south-interior Karnataka,” according to IMD’s latest forecast. At present, regions such as Kerala, south-interior Karnataka, Vidarbha, western and eastern Uttar Pradesh, western and eastern Madhya Pradesh have received ‘deficient’ rainfall. In June, the met department predicted that monsoon season (June-Sept) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 98% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%, while the heartening factor is that the showers in July, which has 33% share in overall monsoon rains, would be 96% of its LPA while actual rainfall during the month was 102% of LPA.