Widespread rains, especially over central and southern regions, on Tuesday have reduced overall imbalance in distribution of south-west monsoon (June-September) so far. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the central regions comprising of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha and four southern states received 159% and 163% more rainfall than benchmark — long period average (LPA) on Tuesday. Till a couple of days back, the monsoon was unevenly distributed which resulted in floods in many parts of Gujarat, Bihar, Bengal, Assam and eastern Uttar Pradesh while some pockets of south, central and north regions remain in ‘deficient’ zones.
According to the Met Department, the cumulative rainfall received so far across the country has been 96% of the LPA, which falls in ‘normal’ category. Rainfall in a range of 96-104% of LPA is treated as ‘normal’. LPA rainfall is pegged at 89 cm, on the basis of average between 1951-2000. Meanwhile, IMD has predicted more rainfall during the next two days which is expected to improved overall rainfall situations in the current monsoon season.
“The current weather analysis and numerical model prediction suggests fairly widespread rainfall activity over Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, southwest Madhya Pradesh and southeast Rajasthan during next 48 hours,” IMD stated it its latest weather bulletin.
As per the regionwise distribution , the north-west India and east and north-east, have received ‘normal’ rainfall of 96% and 100% of LPA, respectively. The central India and southern regions have received ‘below normal’ rainfall of 95% and 93% of LPA, respectively. Out of the 36 sub-divisions in the country, six have received ‘excess’ rainfall while 23 got ‘normal’ rains so far while seven have received ‘deficient’ rains. In terms of area, 21% of the country falls in ‘excess’ rainfall zone while 62% received ‘normal’ monsoon this year while 21% of areas fall in ‘deficient’ rainfall zones.
At present, only regions such as Kerala, south interior Karnataka, Vidarbha, western Uttar Pradesh, eastern Madhya Pradesh have received ‘deficient’ rainfall.
In June, the Met department predicted that monsoon season (June-September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 98% of the (LPA) with a model error of ±4%, while the heartening factor is that the showers in July, which has 33% share in overall monsoon rains would be 96% of its LPA while actual rainfall during the month was 102% of LPA. August, which has a share of 29% in overall monsoon rains, is expected to receive shower at 99% of LPA, as per the IMD forecast. According to data released last week by ministry of agriculture, while overall sowing of kharif crops witnessed a marginal decline at 1,014 lakh hectare compared to a year ago period.