Of the four-month monsoon season in the country, June has ended up with the overall rainfall deficiency of 11 per cent and it is fast declining .
Monsoon is yet to reach several parts of the country, especially northwest India and all region barring the southern peninsula have received deficient rainfall until now.
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In east and northeast India, monsoon was deficient by 28 per cent, while the deficiency was 17 and 7 per cent in central and northwest India respectively.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Dwarka, Vallabh Vidyanagar, Sawai Madhopur, Gwalior, Lucknow, Pantnagar, Dehradun, Una and Jammu. It is expected to cover Delhi, Haryana and Punjab in next two days.
June to September is considered as the rainfall season in India. As per the IMD forecast after two consecutive bad rainfall seasons, this monsoon will be “above normal”.
However, some more positive news is in the offing. El Nino, which is related to sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, is in “neutral” condition. The phenomena had hampered monsoon last year and was also a reason for a warmer winter.
“Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over Maritime Continent and is strong in amplitude, which is favourable for active monsoon conditions over central and north India.
In its forecast for the next 15 days, the IMD has predicted an “above normal” rainfall activity over north India during first week and over central India during second week of July. Western parts of the country are likely to receive above normal rainfall activity during second week.
“The West coast is likely to receive above normal rainfall till 10 July. Slightly below normal rainfall activity is likely over northeastern states till July 5 and normal rainfall activity thereafter.
“Normal to below normal rainfall activity is likely over south interior Peninsular India and it is likely till middle of July,” the IMD added.