Around 75 per cent or one billion people of China would be in the middle-class zone with huge disposable incomes by 2030. In contrast, India would have only around 475 million middle-class population, that too when the country is expected to surpass the total population of China by 2022 itself.
The ‘World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision’ of the UN had projected that India’s population would be around 1.5 billion by 2030 but the Chinese population would remain constant at around the present 1.38 billion.
According to an Economist Intelligence Unit research, at present Chinese society is at an early-to-middle stage of development in terms of per capital consumption. But by 2030, the low-income population of the country would shrink to an extent that the 75 per cent population would be defined as “middle income”.
The research says that disposable income of people in major cities of the country like Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen. By 2030, the number of people having disposable income above $29,590 would double in these cities. Shanghai alone would have more than 10 million people with disposable income above $29,590.
The growing income of Chinese people would certainly act as a force multiplier for companies providing high-end consumer services and goods to invest or seek their presence in China. It is expected that huge disposable incomes would drive people towards spending more on luxury goods, cars, financial and health services.
While China would lead in middle-class consumerism by 2030, India would play the second fiddle. An Ernst & Young report had earlier estimated that India’s middle-class population would be around 475 million by 2030. But after 2017, India would add more to the global middle-class population than China.