The South Asian Association for Regi-onal Cooperation's (SAARC) ninth summit in the Maldives beginning today offers the perfect pitch for Prime Minister I.K. Gujral to expand upon his doctrine of good neighbourliness: use economic concessions as a tool to liberate India from its South Asian backyard.

Commerce Ministry officials are said to be working on a package that offers concessions on tariff and non-tariff barriers to all seven countries in the region to push the agenda of the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), that is supposed to come into effect by 2005.

Economic cooperation in the region has been pursued in fits and starts in the last decade since SAARC came into being. In the first two rounds of negotiations that have taken place so far, as little as 10 per cent of the 5,000-odd tariff lines have been offered by the countries for concessions. An Indian move to offer unilateral concessions in trade, foreign policy analysts and officials in the Ministry of External Affairs say, could now not only kickstart the laggardly pace of economic cooperation in the region -- it could also break the back of the anti-Indian feeling Pakistan is seeking to drum up.

Simply put, fears of sleeping neighbourhood giants or bilateral antagonisms could be effectively subsumed with the thought of making large sums of money by everybody.

Gujral's doctrine, articulated during his incarnation as External Affairs Minister, was widely hailed precisely because, by bettering relations with the smaller neighbours, it substantially reduced foreign interference in India's backyard. Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan are good examples of this approach.

Gujral made similar moves with Sri Lanka during his visit there in end-January to attend the bilateral joint commission on trade when he announced unilateral concessions on 70-80 items (out of a wish-list of 185 Colombo had given) in trade.

For one reason or another, those concessions have still not been put into practice -- but officials now say they will come into effect by the time the third round of SAARC regional negotiations start in July. Officials add, however, that any further delay could negate the pro-Indian mood that is building in that country by New Delhi's hands-off approach to Colombo's internal problems.

By throwing its weight behind the agenda item on "acceleration of economic cooperation" in the region that Maldives, as the host country, has circulated, India could show its commitment to SAARC, the officials say. In any case, the officials add, intra-SAARC trade is a lowly 3 per cent of what these countries trade worldwide. Reducing concessions for the region unilaterally would, in fact, benefit Indian businessmen because of this country's much larger manufacturing base, population, etc.

But Pakistan is said to be somewhat upset about the fact that India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal are ganging up together to promote "sub-regional economic cooperation" at the expense of SAARC. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Gohar Ayub Khan is even believed to have told Gujral (in Delhi last month when they met on the sidelines of the non-aligned ministers meeting) that "as long as you leave SAARC out of it", these countries could carry on with their projects.

It is no small coincidence, then, that Indian officials at the Maldives will reiterate the line that "sub-regional" cooperation will only take place "in addition" to region-wide economic growth. But analysts point out that Islamabad's worry at being "isolated" within the region on this issue can only be proof of the fact that it doesn't want to be left out of a good idea. Sustained economic growth can also give New Delhi that other lever: as the GDP rises and living standards get better, India will have much more room to articulate its natural role as a regional power. SAARC, in fact, could provide India with the strategic depth it has tended to lose over the last half-century.

With the benevolent umbrella of SAARC flapping over the region, India could well attempt to reestablish more meaningful relationships in Tibet, Afghanistan and Central Asia. As the largest economic power in South Asia, India's historical antecedents with the Central Asian region would be invested with that much more significance.

The first piece in the puzzle, analysts say, must therefore be fitted squarely and implemented effectively: the Gujral doctrine must be used to show India's neighbours that New Delhi is prepared to give generously on trade and economic matters. And that in a rapidly liberalising world, where free trade is gradually the norm rather than the exception, South Asia must jointly stretch for a piece of the economic pie.

When two PMs meetAT Full Moon resort on one of the many islands in the Maldives, I.K. Gujral and Nawaz Sharif are expected to come face to face on Monday morning: this will be the first time that the prime ministers of the two countries are getting together for a bilateral meeting since Nawaz Sharif and P.V. Narasimha Rao did so in Dhaka in April 1993, on the sidelines of the seventh SAARC summit.Officials on both sides are keeping terribly quiet about the agenda of the meeting, only saying that it will be "substantive" in nature, that when two prime ministers meet they don't talk about the weather.

Pakistan's High Commissioner to New Delhi, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, told The Indian Express last week that "Kashmir will be the context" in which Islamabad would like the talks to take place, but insisted that his country did not have a single-point agenda.Nawaz Sharif's significant majority in Parliament is said to allow him greater room to manoeuvre in dialogue with India but analysts are wondering how far the Prime Minister wants to (or can) go with ideas his Army may not like.If the Pakistani side in Male insists on keeping Kashmir on top of the charts and argues that progress on other issues cannot take place without progress on Kashmir, the Indians will also be expected to stick to their own oft-stated position: "All issues of wide-ranging and mutual concern," will be discussed.

In that case, both sides will return home without having made any real forward movement.Nevertheless, both prime ministers, who see themselves as "great communicators" don't seem to want to go back to the no-talking position that prevailed between 1994 and April 1997. It's a fair guess, then, that the photo opportunity will become the message, and that the foreign secretaries of both countries will be left to deal with the real meat later this month in Islamabad and after that in New Delhi.No points for guessing -- again -- that Siachen/Line of Control and confidence-building measures in nuclear matters are expected to take up a substantive portion of Gujral and Nawaz Sharif's time.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.