Economic crisis may create new hurdles for Jayalalithaa

Joseph Vackayil

It was Navaratri and Deepavali together on December 4 for AIADMK supremo and former Tamil Nadu chief minister, J Jayalalithaa, and her close aides. The people, too, seemed happy on the face of it. But their happiness was laced with anger and suspicion as the AIADMK government recently burdened them with a heavy dose of price hikes. As a result, the state is bracing up to face a bandh call today (Friday) by several political parties against the price hikes.

For Ms Jayalalithaa’s close aides there were reasons for celebration as it was, what they said, a day of victory of dharma over adharma. However, the analogy ends here. Broadly, people seemed confused with the court ruling. In this scenario, the DMK president M Karunanidhi’s statement that the journey for justice is long, becomes significant.

It is not for nothing that Ms Jayalalithaa is being very cautious in every step that she takes and every word she utters. She is carefully planning her way back to Fort St. George, say political observers. The caretaker chief minister, O Paneerselvam appeared much relieved and was among the first to distribute sweets.

However, nobody is sure about the AIADMK supremo’s next move, except that she is likely to contest the by-election from Andipetti. It is also quite certain that she will take the chief minister’s chair. But when this will happen is not yet clear. Some think that she will straight-away take over the reins of power as all legal hurdles have been crossed. Others believe that she will wait to be elected as a member of the House.

Legal experts are divided over her eligibility to the constitutional provision to be chief minister without being elected, as she has already availed herself of this one-time facility in the five-year term of the House.

Experts say Ms Jayalalithaa’s need for caution stems from several factors. The high court verdict, which will influence the political history of Tamil Nadu in a big way, is liable to be challenged in the Supreme Court. The DMK has left that to its legal experts. But Janata Party leader, Subramanian Swamy, who had initiated the Tansi land deal case, has been unequivocal in his stand about going to the apex court. He said: “She might have been acquitted on procedural grounds but I think in corruption cases the court should not go too much into procedures.”

The definition of what is government property may also be re-interpreted to arrive at different conclusions, say legal experts. Besides this, the former chief minister is charge-sheeted in a few more cases. But progress in those cases may be too slow to make an immediate impact.

The by-election itself may spring a surprise. The economic situation in Tamil Nadu is worsening. During the May elections and immediately after that, all the blame was placed at the doorsteps of the previous government. The same is being done now. At a recent press conference, both the chief minister and finance minister continued to harp on the ‘misdeeds and mismanagement of the previous government’. The AIADMK may not be able to go on this way. People will soon start asking, as some journalists did recently, as to what this government had done in the last six months except increase the prices of essential commodities, electricity tariff, bus fare, milk prices etc.

During her election campaign, Ms Jayalalithaa will have to face all these questions. At the macro- economic level, the price rise may be justified as ‘inevitable’, but the people are not convinced. “The government should have tapped other sources of revenue and should not have burdened the common man who is already struggling to survive”, say some observers.

The state administration has been ‘in waiting’ for far too long — for the decision-maker and the real doer. Hence, the return of Ms Jayalalithaa does seem to have raised some hopes. But the repercussion of her acquittal on the political alignment in the state and the country still remains to be seen.