Incumbents will have to run twice as fast

Devsagar Singh

As four states and one Union territory—Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Pondicherry—brace for assembly polls early next month, it is becoming increasingly clear that the anti-incumbency factor may play a dominant role in determining the results.

So it is that the ruling Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in Assam is facing a serious challenge from the Congress; the 24 year-old Left Front rule in West Bengal is pitted against a surging Trinamool-Congress combine; the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu is in jitters and is pulling all stops to retain power. Similarly, in Kerala, the dice seems to be loaded against the ruling Left Democratic Front despite the internecine bickering between two groups in the Congress led by party veterans K Karunakaran and AK Antony.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the Centre is trying to put up a brave front, with no less than Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee himself declaring that the assembly polls would be a referendum on the Tehelka tapes that exposed pay-offs in defence deals. This has put an additional burden on NDA partners like the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the AGP in Assam to do their best to retain power.

An overview of the election scene suggests that the contest in Assam will mainly be between the Congress and the AGP-BJP combine, while smaller outfits like the United Minority Front (UMF), the ASDC, the Communist Party of India (CPI) and CPI(M) will be marginal players. In the last assembly elections, the AGP got 63 out of 126 seats, followed by the Congress (36) and the BJP (5). This time round, if pollsters are to be believed, the scene may be quite the opposite.

The Congress is mainly depending on minority votes, which account for over 40 per cent of the electorate. The party believes that the AGP-BJP combine will not be seen favourably by the Muslim minority voters. The Congress has already finalised candidates for 90 constituencies. The rest will be finalised shortly. The BJP will contest 44 seats, leaving the rest for its ally, the AGP.

The West Bengal election scene is interesting with the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool-Congress combine taking the well-entrenched Left Front forces head on. It is believed that the West Bengal chief minister Buddhadev Bhattacharjee may find it difficult to even retain the seats that the CPI(M) won last time. The CPI(M) wrested 152 out of 295 seats in the last assembly elections, thus getting a majority on its own, with partners like the All India Forward Bloc, the Revolutionary Socialist Party and the CPI getting 21, 18 and 6 seats, respectively.

The situation this time is markedly different with the Trinamool-Congress combine giving sleepless nights to the Left Front. While the Left Front’s rural bastion is said to be still intact, its urban edifice has reportedly crumbled due to the Opposition’s onslaught. The Congress is contesting 57 seats, the rest having gone to its partner, the Trinamool. The BJP has been left in the lurch by its erstwhile partner, and is now considering contesting all constituencies, if only to weaken its adversaries’ chances.

Ms Banerjee has unleashed a do-or-die battle against the Left Front. But even the most ardent among Ms Banerjee’s supporters admit in private that it is no easy task to unseat the Left Front, which has been in power for an uninterrupted 24 years.

In the south, Tamil Nadu presents a dismal picture for the ruling DMK-led front, judging by the fact that Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) has crossed over to the enemy camp. The PMK has now made common cause against the DMK with Ms Jayalalitha’s AIADMK and the Congress. Its leaving the DMK-led front was the first sign that all was not well with the ruling establishment in Tamil Nadu.

It is true that Ms Jayalalitha is treating other partners like dirt and, to that extent, is annoying the cadres. But she is said to be firm on giving her enemies a run. That she has become a force to reckon with this time round is proved by the fact that a seasoned leader like GK Moopanar of the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) has sided with her. According to political observers, Ms Jayalalitha has already started smelling power.

In the last assembly elections, the DMK emerged as the party with the largest number of seats having bagged 163 seats out of 235. The AIADMK was completely mauled with just four seats. Even the CPI got more, winning eight seats last time.

Clearly, Ms Jayalalitha seems to be turning the tide in her favour with partners like the TMC, PMK and the Congress riding piggy-back on the AIADMK.

In Kerala, the scene is more or less predictable as its electorate has rarely ever returned the ruling party to power. The Left Democratic Front and the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress have been alternating in power for years now. So a safe guesswork would be that the UDF has a definite edge over the LDF. It is another matter that the Congress is involved in a fratricidal war between the two camps at the moment. Party veteran K Karunakaran is annoyed that many of his candidates, including his daughter, have been denied tickets. He has resigned as member of the Congress Working Committee (CWC) in protest. But the Congress party is confident that the internal trouble will be sorted out before polling on May 10.

The Union territory of Pondicherry, with a total of 33 assembly seats, is also going to the polls along with other four states. There the fight is mainly between the Congress and the DMK. At present, the Congress rules the state. But the DMK has a strong presence.

In the last elections, the DMK, in fact, bagged 10 seats against nine by the Congress. But the Congress teamed up with others to form the government.