The cartel's members pump almost 40% of the world's oil, and their decision will affect retail prices for gasoline and other refined products in importing countries such as the U.S. Unlike previous OPEC meetings in recent years, this one unfolded against a backdrop of economic fragility, with stock markets from New York to Tokyo registering steep losses in share values. Consumer confidence has suffered, and fears of a recession are growing. These economic conditions complicated OPEC's efforts to arrive at a suitable cut in output, ministers said. "We have to follow continuously this situation... Of course, the slowdown in the economy was entirely present in our analysis," OPEC Secretary General Ali Rodriguez said at a news conference after the meeting. OPEC's current output quota is 25.2 million barrels a day. This reduction will shave limits for all 11 OPEC members, excluding sanctions-bound Iraq, by one million barrels a day, or 4%, to 24.2 million barrels per day. The step is OPEC'ssecond reduction this year. In January, the cartel cut output by 1.5 million barrels per day after having maintained a steady level of production since April 1999. OPEC president Chakib Khelil said the group made its decision with the interests of consuming countries in mind. "Just as you are concerned about consumers, we are concerned about consumers," OPEC president Chakib Khelil said. However, he noted that the high prices for gasoline in Europe are due primarily to fuel taxes, and he called on governments to lower them. Russia Is Expected to Ignore OPEC's Decision Analysts say, however, that Russia, the world's number two exporter of oil and oil products last year, is likely to ignore OPEC's latest output cut and will concentrate instead on maximizing its oil revenue. The Wall Street Journal Russia was an observer at the OPEC meeting in Vienna, and it isn't bound by the group's price-supporting output cuts.

"Russia doesn't have any commitment to cut, and they need the export revenues," said Russian oil and gas analyst Ivan Mazalov at Troika Dialog investment bank in Moscow. "Even if they make nice noises about cooperating, they won't." Russia exported 3.4 million barrels a day of oil and oil products in 2000, making it the second-largest seller on the world oil market after Saudi Arabia, which exported 7.12 million barrels a day.

Russia promised to match OPEC's cuts two years ago, but never did, said oil and gas analyst Steve Allen at Renaissance Capital in Moscow. It has learned that there is no point in pretending to participate in OPEC's pain-for-gain equation, he said. Markets Anticipate Oil-Production Cut Markets moved higher Friday on the likelihood of a cut. Contracts of light, sweet crude for April delivery were trading Friday at $27.15 a barrel, up 60 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May contracts of North Sea Brent crude were 60 cents higher at $25.61 in late trading on the International Petroleum Exchange in London. "I think a million barrels a day is already more or less factored into the market, because it's already been advertised," said Mehdi Varzi a senior oil analyst at the investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in London. Analysts had generally forecast a decrease in output of at least 500,000 barrels a day. "There may be a short-term rebound in prices," Mr. Varzi said, but he predictedthat crude prices would decline over the next year or two. Despite the earlier 1.5 million barrel per day decrease in January, current global economic weakness appears to have reinforced the case within OPEC for deeper cuts in production. The organization also is anticipating a slowdown this spring in seasonal demand for heating oil and gasoline as the weather starts to warm in many importing nations. Members still are producing about 500,000 barrels a day above the target they agreed upon in January. This amount of overproduction means that if cartel members reduce their official output by 1 million barrels a day, the actual decrease could equal only half that amount, analysts said. OPEC is scheduled to hold an extraordinary general meeting in June in Vienna to assess the effects of the latest cut and to set new production quotas.