Reforms were initiated during 1990-91. Since then, it has been a disturbing trend. Latest figures by the National Sample Survey (NSS) only shows that India is moving in the reverse direction. This gloomy outlook is despite the country's GDP growth picking up during the Nineties and poverty has only further worsened. The economy grew at 6.5 per cent a year between 1992-93 and 1997-98 against an average 5.8 per cent between 1980-81 and 1990-91. Paradoxically though, during these years people living below the poverty line rose from 35 per cent in 1991 to 37 per cent in 1997. In 1999, 39 per cent were found to be living below the poverty line.

The trend reflects on the quality of growth, changing sectoral composition and inequitable distribution. It shows that despite continued efforts by successive governments to lower the poverty levels, the actual number living below the poverty line has been fast increasing. This is then a reversal in the trend experienced during the 1980s, when the percentage of the population below the poverty line had declined sharply from 44 per cent in 1983 to 35 per cent in 1991. The absolute number of poor declined from 323 million in 1983 to 291 million in 1991, but increased sharply to 349 million in 1997.

This rise in the overall poverty ratio is to be attributed to the growing rural-urban divide with increased impoverishment of rural India. The latest NSS data reveals that percentage of the urban poor has declined but with a simultaneous increase in the rural poor. Also, there is a growing disparity in incomes of the rural and urban population. Again, latest NSS records indicate a widening disparity between the urban and rural expenditure at both current and constant prices.

To look at the problem in conjunction with India's rising population, it may be noted that majority of the population lives in the villages and the rising rural poverty levels are disturbing. It is only recently that the government has started emphasising on social sector development. But here again the government's focus has been on urban development.

But, increase in rural poverty during the Nineties is not altogether surprising considering the relative neglect of agriculture and rural development over this period. Currently, the share of agriculture to GDP has fallen.

But the dependence of population on the sector has not decreased. Simply put, industrial growth has not been in sync with the rising population levels in rural India.

Why is this happening? Population is growing at a pace which lags agricultural production. Plus, there has been a massive drop in public investments in agriculture including rural infrastructure and irrigation. Hence, it would be wrong to blame the reforms process.