Mumbai, Aug 13: Bruised by a tumbling currency and lacklustre institutionaland foreign buying interest, stocks are expected to start the weekcautiously with few prospects of an upturn, analysts said."It is basically a lack of confidence," said Abhay Aima, head of equitiestrading at HDFC Bank. "When the mood is down, the bad news gets magnified,"he added.The benchmark 30-stock index is likely to move in a narrow 150-point rangeduring the week, as investors wait for the foreign exchange market tostabilise and large-scale purchases by foreign investors to resume, theysaid.
The rupee, convertible only on the current account, fell to a new low of46.08 per dollar last week, down 5.6 percent since January, on heavycorporate demand.
The shares took the currency fall badly, losing nearly three percent in thelast two days of the week.The index ended at 4,192 on Friday, down 16percent since January.
Analysts said investors are likely to tread warily in the coming days,though the fundamentals remained strong."I don't see much upside," said thechief dealer of a foreign brokerage. "Even a small rally would be a goodtime to book profits," he added.
The currency slide, lukewarm foreign investment flows, an absence ofpositive news and a dull Nasdaq have all hurt sentiment.Higher interestfears dampen sentiment Fears that higher interest rates could dent corporatebottomlines would also affect sentiment, analysts said.Several leadingstate-run banks have hiked prime lending rates after the central bank pushedup short-term rates and drained liquidity to support the rupee.On Friday, the country's largest commercial bank, the State Bank of India,said it was hiking its Prime lending rate by 75 basis points from August12.These factors will keep the index moving around the 4,200 levels over thenext few days, analysts said.
The Nasdaq ended last Friday up only two points on the week, while the DowJones Industrial Average topped 11,000 for the first time in fourmonths.Indian technology shares are expected to move in a narrow range withprofit taking keeping any rallies short.
Foreign funds, aggressive investors for the first five months of 2000, haveturned lukewarm over the last two-and-a-half months with a mix of heavyselling and sporadic purchases.
They were heavy sellers in June and July with net sales touching $550million.Figures in August so far have shown a positive trend, with netpurchases of around $139.5 million, but analysts said purchases have beenrestricted to select stocks."If we get a figure of around Rs 4.0-5.0 billioninvestment in a day ($100 million), that could perk things up," said ArunKejriwal, chief dealer at Nikko Stock Broker.
Leading stocks to watch this week include state-run overseas telecomscarrier Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd.The firm said on Friday it would list itsAmerican Depositary Receipts on the New York Stock Exchange on August 15.Its shares ended Friday at 738.70 Rupees, down 9.15 on the day.Cementshares, which had bucked the downtrend last week, were likely to continuetheir good run on expectations of good demand and prices in the secondquarter.
Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.