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Smooth ride ahead for Blue Dart 

Deepak Singh Tanwar  
After a period of nearly four months,Blue Dart stock has shown an uptrend, and has moved up from Rs 160 to the current level of Rs 217. This move however has not been backed by higher trading volumes. The uptrend is mainly attributed to its financial performance. The company has proved that it can sustain the high rate of growth. The results for the first quarter just confirm this.

While sales have risen 25.9 per cent from Rs 44.84 crore to Rs 56.45 crore in the first quarter (April-June 2000), profit at the net level jumped 108 per cent to Rs 3.80 crore. The company managed to post such a higher growth in net profit inspite of a 59.45 per cent higher interest burden. Interest burden during the first quarter of 2000-2001 stood at Rs 2.95 crore. The main boost came from a smart jump in operating profit margins which improved from 9.96 per cent to 13.97 per cent. This was possible mainly with an increased share of value added services. For the last two years, the company has been focusing more and more on higher value added. The efforts seems to have paid off, and yielding good returns.

These results deserved a warm welcome from the stock market if one were to consider the fact that growth in profit earnings had shown a slow down in the fourth quarter (January-March 2000) of last fiscal year.For the fourth quarter, income from operation stood at Rs 56.39 crore-a growth of 4.8 per cent from Rs 5,380 crore achieved in the third quarter (October-December 1999).

While income from operations showed an improvement, operating profit did decline from Rs 8.21 crore in the third quarter to Rs 7.32 crore in the fourth quarter, resulting in a lower OPM of 12.94 per cent as compared to 15.37 per cent. While results in the first quarter has been impressive, the future outlook is continue to be good. With strong presence in courier segment, and increasing focus on value added services, and an expected boom in the e-commerce which will generate huge revenue for Blue Dart, the company will be able to sustain the rate of growth in profits. Technically speaking, while the current rally is a good indication, low trading volume on the counter is not a healthy sign. The medium term player can use Rs 160 as a stop loss for long positions. Unless this level is broken, one should remain invested in this counter.

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