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ASK-Raymond James is bullish on Infosys, Satyam, Hughes, NIIT, Aptech and Zee 

Janaki Krishnan  
Mumbai, April 10: The prices of infotech and media stocks have been going through the roof ever since the ICE (information technology, communications and entertainment) mania caught the markets. Those investors who were not savvy enough to have anticipated the boom were left chewing their nails as they saw the valuations of the companies zoom even as the chance of owning a few shares of ICE slipped out of their hands.

However, with the markets having cooled over the past few weeks, this could be the right time to buy into some select ICE stocks - as the market is just starting its ascent again.

ASK-Raymond James in its latest India Equity Research report has put Aptech Ltd, Hughes Software Systems, Infosys Technologies, NIIT, Satyam Computers and Zee Telefilms on its buy list.

The prices of all these stocks have fallen by half from the price they reached earlier this year. The research report has estimated Aptech's revenues to grow by 35.9 per cent and net profit by 52.6 per cent (compounded annual growth rates) over the years 1999-2001. The faster growth in net profit compared to the revenue would be due to the increasing proportion of high margin software solutions business. The stock touched a peak of Rs 2981 in January this year and is now hovering around Rs 1596.65.

Aptech is now laying more emphasis on e-commerce which is expected to pay rich dividends, as the company is perceived to have the capability of turning e-commerce business into a lucrative activity and implementing projects from concept to completion. Aptech's knowledge management division's assignments are expected to lead to development of knowledge portals, adding to its e-commerce revenue streams.

The share price of Hughes Software, which had peaked at 4848 in January has slipped by more than 40 per cent since and according to ASK, the change in the company's revenue model to more value-added businesses, its thrust on research and development in the areas of communications and e-commerce "will enable the company to retain its leading position in the industry.

Increase in the company's sales growth is estimated to accelerate with its increasing focus on non-Hughes Network Systems clients and products sales - this is based on the fact that while the business of the parent group is growing at the rate of 25 to 30 per cent, the revenues from its non-HNS is growing at 80 per cent and products sales at 110 per cent. According to ASK, the company's dependence on its parent group is likely to reduce to 44 per cent of its revenues in fiscal 2001 from 74 per cent last fiscal, in the previous fiscal.

HSS is one of the major spenders on research and development, investing 11 per cent of its revenues on R&D, which helps it to reposition its product so that the global `market space' for its products expands to around $150 million from the current $50 million.

The strength of the company's financial performance are attested to the fact that the company has liquid cash worth over Rs one billion, most of which will be utilised to expand through organic growth and acquisitions.

Infosys Technologies is every investor's dream scrip but has remained somewhat out of the reach of many investors due to its high price. However, the price of this scrip has declined by 43 per cent from a peak of Rs 13,813 it had touched earlier this year and its going prices are good bargain rates.ASK has forecast 55 per cent and 70 per cent year-on-year growth in revenues and net profit over a two year time period. The contribution of e-commerce to the company's revenues increased to 15.6 per cent in the third quarter of the last fiscal compared to just 4.3 per cent in the comparable quarter in the previous year and 10.4 per cent in the second quarter of the last fiscal.

NIIT, which made its name through learning and software solutions, is rapidly transforming itself into a e-commerce company. The company is due for a re-rating on the bourses and ASK has recommended a buy in this stock. With the company becoming debt free, the return on capital employed is expected to improve to 43.7 per cent for the year ended September, 30 2001 from 37.6 per cent in the previous year.

The proportion of software solutions in its total business mix is expected to increase, leading to a rise in the margin levels.

The share price of Satyam has depreciated by more than 50 per cent since January - "this is an opportunity to add a leading stock with a proven track record to the investment portfolio," ASK has recommended, forecasting a 60 per cent growth over a two year period.

Media stocks like Television 18 and Zee are also on the buy list. Subhash Chandra promoted company's stock is available at nearly half the price that it was going for six weeks back, while TV 18 is currently quoting at a substantial discount to its listing price. For see the "the biggest upside" is the subscription revenues, alongwith the Internet business and broadband service.

TV18, which provides content for CNBC India among others, is expected to benefit from the growth in TV programming in the next two years.Its subscription revenues are also expected to increase substantially over the next two years as CNBC now forms a part of the Sony group.

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