Industry analysts said annual domestic demand for fertiliser was estimated at four million tonnes and the local industry had the capacity to fulfil it. But Khan said unchecked cheap imports could rise to 5,00,000 tonnes by the end of the year in December. He said fertiliser imports, sourced mostly from countries of the former Soviet Union and Middle East, were dumped at $90 a tonne C&F whichis about $25 cheaper than local fertiliser.

"We have suggested to the government that they should levy an anti-dumping duty or a regulatory duty which takes into account the portion that we call a dumping portion. In our opinion it is around $20 to $25 (per tonne)," he said. Khan said the fertiliser industry could keep prices at reasonable levels despite higher input costs but could not compete with dumping. "I think that some of the fertiliser plants will either shut down or will go almost in a loss situation," he said. He said a 15 per cent general sales tax on gas, levied in August, was also "a direct hit" as the industry had not been allowed to pass on the cost to the consumers. "Your domestic industry is paying GST on input and there is no GST on output, so an importer has an advantage," he said. He said although the fertiliser industry, which consumes 25 per cent of Pakistan's total natural gas supply, was getting gas at subsidised rates, that was still higher than Russian and Gulf states.

Khansaid the government should act fast to take a decision on dumping to save the indigenous fertiliser industry. "With the rest of the industry in trouble in Pakistan as it is, fertiliser was one industry which was doing well," he said. The agriculture ministry sources said fresh urea demand for the Rabi (winter crop) season is anticipated at 2.1 million tonnes against 2.03 million tonnes last year. The blue chip Engro Chemical shares were quoted 30 paise up at 82.40 rupees at the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE).