The per capita consumption of sugar would also reach a record level of 17.41 kg per annum (for 6 per cent GDP growth) and 19.05 kg per annum (for 7 per cent GDP growth) respectively in 2002-2002 as compared to 14.96 kg per annum during 1996-97. According to the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories, a representative body of sugar cooperatives from all over the country, the production required for internal consumption for 6 per cent GDP growth will be 169.69 lakh tonnes in 2000-2001 and 177.88 lakh tonnes in 2001-2002. The production required for internal consumption for 7 per cent GDP growth will be 175.03 lakh tonnes in 2000-2001 and 184.83 lakh tonnes in2001-2002.

Despite adverse conditions, the sugar production may reach 128 lakh tonnes during 1997-98 season as against the initial estimate of 110 lakh tonnes. The opening stock of 1998-99 has been of the order of 55.5 lakh tonnes. Apart from it, more than 9n lakh tonnes of sugar has been imported by various private importers.

According to the Federation, the sugar situation in the country will be fairly confortable but rather "depressing as regards sugar prices are concerned." Over and above this, the sugar industry is expecting a production of about 150 lakh tonnes during 1998-99.

The price of sugar in Mumbai market reached to its peak level in May this year. However, it came down in September but again picked up towards the end of September. The prices of M-30 and S-30 sugar in Mumbai market as on September 30, 1998 were Rs 1,470-1,534 and 1,460-1,480 per quintal respectively.

The prices of sugar in Delhi market showed a slight increase. The prices of M-30 and S-30 sugar were Rs 1,500-1,600 and1,490-1,510 per quintal respectively. The prices of sugar in Chennai market showed a downward trend. The price of sugar as on September 30, 1998 were Rs 1,400-1,505 per quintal.

The Federation said that the economics of sugar industry depends on various factors like quality and availability of sugarcane, size of plant, season duration, technology levels, productivity, product quality, cost of sugarcane, sales realisation of sugar and value addition to by-products. A large number of factories (abaout 286) are yet beow the Minimum Economic Size (MES) levels.

A study prepared by the Task Force constituted by the centre to formulate development programme for sugar industry for the ninth five year plan has said that lack of raw material, finance and technical inputs may have deferred these factories to increase their plan capacity. The Task Force has also recommended optimum season duration for achieving productivity on a zone wise basis and long term strategy for sugar exports should be allowed to encouragethe sugar mills to take necessary steps on a permanent basis to upgrade sugar quality for meeting international quality standards.

Task Force has recommended that new licences should be issued in those areas where availability of cane is sufficient and potential for development exists.