Punjab and Haryana in the north and Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh in the south are the states which have borne the brunt of nature's fury with Punjab expecting a fall of 18 lakh tonne in kharif paddy output, Krishi Bhavan sources said.

Paddy cultivation has been hit in about 20 per cent of the total area in Punjab. The area covered in this green revolution state has fallen by 70,000 hectare. It now stands at 22.79 lakh hectare as against last years 23 lakh hectare.

However, there is a silver lining, the sources point out, saying the paddy vacated area is now available for early sowing of rabi wheat which is to begin at October-end.

There is concern also on the potato front in Punjab where the production is feared to fall tosome extent. However, the overall impact on its total production will not be significant as the state produces only eight lakh tonne amounting to some ten per cent of the aggregate.

Cotton is the worst hit crop in that state, facing an additional menace of "American boll worm," a rain-fed pest.

Production is feared to fall by five to six lakh bales from the target of 15 lakh bales which was set before the onset of rain. Officials feel the output might stagnate at last year's level of 9.41 lakh bales.

Asked if there would be a fall in the 1998-99 foodgrain output target, ministry sources maintained it was too early to predict, stating the rains have left a rich groundwater source for the largely irrigation-based rabi crops.

In Andhra Pradesh, rain and flood have hit eight per cent of area covered under groundnut, sunflower, arhar dal and jowar.

However, there is good news on the lately much-maligned mustard with more areas being covered under this crop in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Though inRajasthan 20 per cent of the mustard cultivation area has been hit by the rain, farmers are hopeful of resowing in time to make up for the loss.The outlook is bright also for soyabean where the total covered area is 64.5 lakh hectare against 59.2 lakh hectare last year. Production is expected to go up to 69 lakh tonne from 65 lakh tonne last year.

The latest crop prospects were reviewed last week at a meeting of the crop weather watch group at an interministerial think-tank on agriculture here. As per the review, the area covered under kharif rice during 1998-99 is 35.91 million hectare -- marginally lower from 36.81 million hectare covered during the corresponding period last year. Transplanting of paddy is reported to be in progress in the southern states. Harvesting in northern states is in progress. The condition of the standing crop is reported to be normal.

The major kharif coarse cereal crops include jowar, bajra, maize, ragi and small millet.

The area covered under kharif coarse cereals for1998-99 so far is reported to be 21.39 million hectare, slightly lower from 22.22 million hectare during the corresponding period last year. The major decrease is in the case of bajra in Rajasthan.

The area covered under pulses so far is reported to be 9.73 million hectare, up by 0.11 million hectare from last year.

The area of coverage under oilseeds so far is reported to be 15.98 million hectare. About one million higher than the coverage of 14.93 million hectare last year.

Higher area coverage has been reported for groundnut in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka and soyabean from the major producing states of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.

Krishi Bhavan officials are optimistic that given the overall picture and an expected better rabi prospects, the food production target for the year is not likely to be hit in any significant way on account of the recent rain and flood.