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Tuesday, October 13, 1998

Asian palm oil seen extending losses 

REUTERS  
Kuala Lumpur, Oct 12: Southeast Asian palm oil prices are expected to extend losses this week as the markets watch for fresh crop data and movements in the Indonesian rupiah, regional traders said.

Malaysian palm oil prices were pressured last week by estimates of Malaysia's September palm oil output and stocks by private crop forecaster Ivan Wong.

Output was estimated to have risen by seven per cent to 902,000 tonnes in September from August, while end-September stocks were pegged at 750,000 tonnes against 673,648 tonnes at end-August.

Wong also estimated exports at 710,000 tonnes in September versus 759,565 tonnes in August.

Wong will issue his final estimates of September crop this week, a day before the release of official Palm Oil Registration and Licensing Authority (PORLA) data.

"More bearish figures will keep the market under pressure," said a trader in Kuala Lumpur. "Demand for products has slowed down after the strong export business last month."

Traders said the market was also awaitingthe release of Malaysia's palm oil export data for the first half of October from cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) later this week.

Malaysia's benchmark, third month, December futures contract ended down 20 ringgit at 2,236 ringgit a tonne on Friday. Traders pegged immediate support for the contract at 2,200 ringgit.

The Indonesian market would watch the rupiah movement after its surge last week, traders said.

"The rupiah will become a major factor in the market. You know that prices have fallen because the rupiah has strengthened," said one trader in Jakarta.

The rupiah jumped almost 13 per cent against the dollar last week, closing on Friday at around 9,300 to the dollar.

Palm olein finished the week at 3,500-3,600 rupiah/kg in Jakarta.

"I don't see any problem with demand. Most players believe prices are bottoming out, but things will change if the rupiah strengthens again," said the trader.

The market had been depressed by increasing supply and a strengthening rupiah,traders said.

Traders said they were waiting for the government to remove or lower the export taxes of crude palm oil and its by-products.

Indonesia imposes export taxes of 60 per cent for crude palm oil, 55 per cent for RBD palm oil and RBD palm olein and 50 per cent for crude palm kernel oil.

Some traders said they were optimistic the taxes would be lowered soon because of the falling prices.

But others believed the taxes would be lowered or scrapped when olein reached between 3,100-3,200 rupiah/kg, which was possible either by the end of this year or next year.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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