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Gordana Kukic
Belgrade, Sept 18: Yugoslavia's 1998 corn harvest was put at 5.1-5.3 million tonnes, the lowest forecast given so far this year, Belgrade-based Maize Research Institute Zemun Polje estimated on Friday.
"This will not be the worst year, but the harvest will be around the 1996 level," said Zivorad Videnovic, deputy manager of the Institute. "We estimate average yield to range from 3.7-3.8 tonnes per hectare, which would bring about 5.0-5.13 million tonnes of corn from the official 1.35 million ha sown," he told Reuters.
But, as the acreage usually turns out to be somewhat higher than official statistics give, the Institute has put its estimate at 5.3 million tonnes from a 1.4 million ha maize area, he explained. The Institute does not have its own data on the area sown but uses the official figure.
One analyst, who asked not to be named, said the discrepancy between the official data and actual area sown to maize could be up to 100,000 ha.
"This leaves the state quite a lot of manouevring spaceespecially in the difficult economic situation the country is in now -- fighting in Kosovo, investment ban, frozen assets and other forms of sanctions."
The latest official statistics report estimated the maize crop at 5.58 million based on the state of the crop on August 15. The Yugoslav Chamber of Commerce forecast stands at 5.5 million, some 20 percent below the 1997 crop.
In 1997, Yugoslavia harvested 6.94 million tonnes from 1.366 million ha with an average yield of 5.08 tonnes per ha. One month of drought in the second half of July and first 20 days in August reduced first estimates of the crop by over 15 percent.
Lazo Jakovljevic of the Novi Sad Farming Institute said hot and dry weather had less impact on fields in Vojvodina, the country's granary to the North, where 680,000 ha of the total acreage was sown to maize. Official statistics said 660,000 ha were sown to maize in Vojvodina.
"The effects were the smallest in our province, where we expect 5.2 million tonnes per ha, or a total harvestof 3.5 million," Jakovljevic said.
"Along with the expected crop of 2.1 million tonnes in other parts of the country, the harvest this year could total 5.6 million tonnes," he added.
Government officials say up to one million tonnes of corn will be available for exports. Yugoslavia, with 10.5 million population, needs 4.5 million tonnes of maize for cattle around 600,000 tonnes for industrial processing, food and seed corn, and one million tonnes for stocks and reserves.
Analysts agree the crop estimates would remain unchanged till the beginning of the harvest. Ideal crop conditions now would be a long period of dry weather after rainy spells early this month, plus "average daily temperatures of 14-15 degrees Celsius, for the corn to ripen and dry properly," Jakovljevic said.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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