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Azhar Sukri
Kuala Lumpur, Sept 18: Sacked finance minister Anwar Ibrahim has emerged as a magnet for thousands of Malaysians seeking change, but it may be difficult for him to regain power.
Disgruntled citizens shouting "Reformasi" (Reform) have swarmed around Anwar since his expulsion from cabinet and party posts early this month.
But analysts and supporters say his lack of an organised political base, funding and the threat of arrest mean the most vocal uprising in Malaysia since 1969 may run out of steam.
"The idealist in me says the chances of him achieving political power are high," said Sathesh Ramachandran, a lawyer in Kuala Lumpur and an Anwar supporter.
"But the realist in me says it is unlikely."
Crowds numbering in some cases up to 50,000 have gathered around Anwar since he ventured out of the confines of his house last weekend to deny sex-and-treason allegations and promote the reform movement which has formed spontaneously around him.
Prime minister Mahathir Mohamad sacked Anwar as financeminister and deputy prime minister on September 2. The next day, the ruling United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) expelled him.
Anwar has been holding meetings at his suburban home in Kuala Lumpur, drawing thousands of people.
Police have not intervened although permits, required for gatherings of three or more people, have not been granted.
Mahathir has said Anwar was sacked because he was morally unfit to lead. Anwar was accused of sexual misconduct and treason in a book, "Fifty Reasons Why Anwar Cannot Become Prime Minister".
Anwar claims there was a high-level conspiracy to oust him due to policy differences over the handling of the worst economic crisis in decades and to curb his political ascendancy.
Anwar said this week he expected to be arrested after the 16th Commonwealth Games, which ends next Monday.
"If they do arrest him, he will instantly become a martyr, and that could be the best thing and the worst thing to happen," Ramachandran said.
Anwar became an independent legislatorwhen he was expelled from UMNO. As long as he remains free, he will seek to unify opposition parties within parliament, political analysts say.
"So far there has been no credible alternative to UMNO. Anwar could provide that. There is no guarantee that UMNO will rule for ever and ever," said the head of a government think tank who declined to be identified.
This week the Democratic Action Party, the largest opposition party with nine lawmakers in the 192-seat lower house, endorsed Anwar's movement whose platform calls for justice for all and more equal distribution of wealth.
Police have already detained five former aides and confidants of Anwar. The government's trump card against Anwar could be arrest, crushing the movement in its embryonic stage.
"After Anwar there really is nobody else who could really lead this," a supporter at Anwar's house said.
Anwar wants reform of the political system, which has created an elite of wealthy ethnic Malays or Bumiputras since 1969 when tensions between Malaysand ethnic Chinese erupted into violence.
"In the 1995 elections, the opposition had a dismal showing. The economy was doing very well and people saw their success as a product of Mahathir's liberalisation policies," Rustam Sani, a political writer, said.
Anwar and his supporters claim that the very system that brought them and their parents out of poverty is now being abused by Mahathir to favour a small number of entrepreneurs.
"I think these feelings have always been there, but when the economy was doing well no one really wanted to express them," said Viyay Sethi, an educator who attended one of Anwar's meetings.
But real power is gained through elections, and analysts doubt Anwar has the means to fight UMNO.
"If elections were fought over sentiment alone Anwar would win hands down," said Chandra Muzaffar, a professor and human rights activist.
"But they also need organisation, money and the support of the media. These other things are not there in the same quantity."
Copyright © 1998Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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