CMIE, in a release issued on Thursday, has projected a rise in inflation to about 8 per cent and rise in M3 to 17 per cent against the Reserve Bank of India's projection of 15.5 per cent. CMIE has also announced that it expects the balance of payments (BoP) position to worsen.

The CMIE has also noted that uneven distribution of rainfall, recorded at 145 mm against the "normal" 155mm, has "left several rain-dependent parts deficient. The result, says CMIE, will be a lower agricultural output of not more than 194 million tonnes against a revised official target of 203-204 million tonnes.

The output of non-foodgrains is expected to increase by2 per cent.

Specifically, the output of groundnut, cotton and sugarcane is expected to increase substantially during 1998-99. Overall agricultural production is expected to register a nominal increase of 0.7 per cent in 1998-99.

The release lists several aspects of a generally bleak scenario. Despite a 48 per cent increase in hydel power generation, total power generation went up by 10 per cent in April, and the target of seven per cent increase in power generation during 1998-99 appears unachievable.

Coal and crude oil production declined during April. Both these industries have been recording very sluggish growth since February 1998. The demand for coal from the thermal power plants was weak during the first quarter of 1998-99.

Revenue earnings of goods traffic on the railways declined by nearly 6 per cent in May 1998. The cumulative decline in the first two months was 3.5 per cent. Cargo on major ports is estimated to have stagnated in April 1998.