1. Rahul Gandhi talks about strong undercurrent in Gujarat but Congress needs to solve 2012 arithmetic puzzle

Rahul Gandhi talks about strong undercurrent in Gujarat but Congress needs to solve 2012 arithmetic puzzle

Gujarat Polls: The high-octane campaigning for the second phase of polling has ended yesterday. The polling will be held on December 14 and results will be declared on December 18.

By: | New Delhi | Updated: December 13, 2017 10:04 AM
 gujarat polls, gujarat elections, Congress, rahul gandhi, narendra modi, gujarat polls results, gujarat polls video, narendra modi video Gujarat Polls: The high-octane campaigning for the second phase of polling has ended yesterday. The polling will be held on December 14 and results will be declared on December 18.

Gujarat Polls: The high-octane campaigning for the second phase of polling has ended yesterday. The polling will be held on December 14 and results will be declared on December 18. Congress President-elect Rahul has donned a new avatar as he has been firing salvos at Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP. Apart from posting a series of question on Twitter, he talked about a big shift in PM Modi’s home state. The Congress has raked up demonetisation, GST roll out and resentment among Patidars to breach BJP citadel.

The second and final phase of elections, for which the open campaigning ended, will see 93 assembly seats spread across 14 districts in north and central Gujarat going to polls. The first phase of voting for the 182-member house, held on December 9, covered 89 seats. A total of 851 candidates are in the fray for the second phase, where 2.22 crore people are eligible to vote. Top leaders from the two parties criss-crossed the regions going to polls on December 14 and addressed a number of rallies where they pulled out all stops to woo the voters.

The victory margin from 2012 elections suggests that Congress is facing an uphill and intricate arithmetic to dethrone the BJP. While the BJP won 115 seats (in a House of 189) with an average margin of 26,236 votes, the Congress’s average victory margin stood at 13,577 votes across the 61 seats it won in 2012. While Congress won 55 of its 61 seats (almost 90 per cent) from rural areas, the BJP won 63 (about 55 per cent) of its seats from rural areas. There were about 124 seats where the rural population constituted more than half of the population.

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Victory margin in 2012: The victory margin from 2012 elections suggests that Congress is facing an uphill and intricate arithmetic to dethrone the BJP. While the BJP won 115 seats (in a House of 189) with an average margin of 26,236 votes, the Congress’s average victory margin stood at 13,577 votes across the 61 seats it won in 2012. While Congress won 55 of its 61 seats (almost 90 per cent) from rural areas, the BJP won 63 (about 55 per cent) of its seats from rural areas. There were about 124 seats where the rural population constituted more than half of the population.

Relatively close fight in rural areas

In rural areas, where BJP and Congress appeared to have competed more equally winning 63 and 55 seats respectively, the BJP had marginally a better average victory margin as compared to that of Congress. While the BJP’s average victory margin in rural seats stood at about 16,688 votes, the Congress’s victory margin was only slightly behind at about 14,456 votes.

BJP dominance in urban areas

However, their victory margins diverge massively in urban areas where BJP virtually swept the elections. Of about 58 urban seats (where urban section constituted over 50 per cent of population), the BJP won 52 while the Congress could win only six. The BJP’s margin in these urban victories on an average stood at 37,805 votes as against the paltry 5,513-vote margin secured by Congress in urban areas.

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  1. Firstchoiceipo Analysis
    Dec 13, 2017 at 10:23 am
    Congress is likely to get majority in Gujarat.
    Reply

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