1. Gujarat elections 2017: After predicting BJP defeat, Yogendra Yadav says ‘accept there was a miscalculation on my part’

Gujarat elections 2017: After predicting BJP defeat, Yogendra Yadav says ‘accept there was a miscalculation on my part’

Yogendra Yadav after predicting a major drubbing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Gujarat Assembly elections 2017, has taken a U-turn after the exit polls of all the pollsters indicated the saffron party getting the lion's share of the seats in the Gujarat polls.

By: | New Delhi | Updated: December 15, 2017 10:56 PM
Yogendra Yadav accepts the fault in his projections, says BJP will lead

Founder of Swaraj Abhiyaan Yogendra Yadav after predicting a major drubbing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Gujarat Assembly elections 2017, has taken a U-turn after the exit polls of all the pollsters indicated the saffron party getting the lion’s share of the seats in the Gujarat polls. Calling his earlier prediction, a ‘miscalculation and misjudgment’, he said that BJP is expected to sweep the elections. However, he added that he is not yet sure of the margin by which BJP will take a lead. He cleared that his earlier projections were based on the opinion polls of October-November, which showed a very steep decline in the popularity of the BJP. Making a calculation on the basis of the opinion polls, he adjudged that the BJP is set for a shock with the results of the Gujarat polls. “There was a sharp swing against the BJP in the past few weeks,” he said and added, “Unless the trend is dramatically reversed, surveys lead to the same conclusion — defeat for the BJP.” In an interview with a private news channel, he said, “Clearly, there was an error in my judgment and a miscalculation on my part.”

Earlier, Yogendra Yadav had projected three possible results for the Gujarat Election, all of which showed BJP losing in its bastion. While sharing his projections, he cleared that they are mere interpretations. In a tweet, he said, “Please note that this is not forecast of the kind I used to make earlier. I’m simply interpreting publicly available survey data. It points to a trend that I am projecting forward.” Here is his earlier estimate:

Scenario1: Possible
BJP 43% votes, 86 seats
INC 43% votes, 92 seats

Scenario 2: Likely
BJP 41% votes, 65 seats
INC 45% votes, 113 seats

Scenario 3: Can’t be ruled out
Even bigger defeat for the BJP

However, after all the exit polls indicated the BJP taking the front seat, he expressed his amazement and acknowledged the new survey findings. In a tweet, he said, “Am surprised, but no reason to disbelieve all exit polls since they all point in the same direction. We can’t still be sure of seats, but it seems clear that BJP enjoys an edge in Gujarat.”

The Gujarat Elections were held in two phases (December 9 and 14) and the vote count will start on December 18.

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  1. P
    P.S.Radhakrishnan
    Dec 16, 2017 at 6:52 am
    Y.Y. in fact put the cart before the horse. His hate for BJP gained prominence over common sense and people's reactions . He claimed that he toured through out the state then why missed out the pulse of the people. What he wants has no relevance . Majority of those who traveled in the state observed that although people had some problem with the ruling dispensation , they still wanted to go along with the BJP. How the eminent leader missed this, one wonders!!
    Reply
    1. A
      ajish
      Dec 15, 2017 at 11:39 pm
      Yadav, for a psephologist , made a hasty prediction and subsequently did a hasty u-turn. All things considered, his projection (Scenario 2) is the nearest to truth.
      Reply
      1. Kvkrishnamoorthi Acharya
        Dec 16, 2017 at 12:49 pm
        Wait till 18th! Why speculate now?
        Reply

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