The size of the Indian economy could increase five-fold to $10 trillion in the next 15 years, replicating a feat achieved by the Chinese economy, NITI Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Friday.
“India started off to rapid growth a little later than China, but now it has the potential to accomplish in the next 15 years what China did in the last 15 years. India’s GDP (now) stands at about $2 trillion and it has good prospects of rising to $10 trillion in the next 15 years,” Panagariya said addressing an India-China investment conclave organised by industry body Ficci in New Delhi. Panagariya said India needs to learn from China and develop coastal economic zones as China has done in Shenzhen. China and India, which contributed to 50% of world’s GDP till 1820, are once again regaining their lost glory in the world, he said. With $10.86 trillion (14.7% share in world GDP), the Chinese economy stood second in the world after the US in 2015, while India, at $ 2.07 trillion (2.8%)was ranked seventh. Analysts reckon that to reach $10 trillion level, the Indian economy needs to grow at over 11% for the next one-and-half a decade, which is a daunting challenge. China’s economy was $1.2 trillion in 2000.
The NITI Aayog is preparing a 15-year vision document, which would provide a roadmap for developing India into a global economic powerhouse with inclusive and sustainable growth. The first draft of the document would be ready by January.
“With China promoting out-bound investment and India seeking foreign capital and technology, it should enable us to take advantage of the synergies and put in place a vigorous framework to strengthen bilateral investment relationships,” Panagariya said. Since India and China are the only two rapidly-growing major economies, they need to maintain high growth rates to lift global growth, said Xu Shaoshi, chairman of the National Development and Reforms Commission of China. Xu is leading the delegation for the fourth India-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue.