The northeast monsoon is likely to remain weak over the southern peninsula because of the late onset of La Niña and a predominantly northward movement of the cyclonic disturbances, Joseph PV, former director of India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Joseph added November rains would be deficient in Tamil Nadu and cyclonic disturbances forming in Bay of Bengal are likely to move northwards depriving the state of the associated heavy rains.
Monsoon rains are critical for the Indian agriculture with majority of the farms lacking other irrigation facilities. During 2015, a strong El Niño and the side effects of warming of the surface temperature of north Indian Ocean had resulted in active cyclones with a pre -dominant westward motion. Several parts of Tamil Nadu were inundated due to the heavy cyclonic rains last year.
“After the El Niño of 2015, we were expecting pLa Niña to set in during August and September to give us above normal all India monsoon rainfall in 2016. La Niña is setting in now only (in October-November 2016). June to September monsoon was short by 3 % in India,” Joseph, now professor emeritus in the atmospheric science department at Cochin University of Science and Technology said.