India Meteorological Department has stuck to its forecast of “deficient” monsoon as it came out with its prediction for the second half of the season which is likely to witness weak rainfall over the next two months.
IMD said rainfall in August is likely to be 90 per cent, which is on the negative side of “below normal” rainfall. It has added that El-Nino phenomenon has strengthened from weak to moderate from April to July and it will continue to remain so in the remaining time of the season.
“Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the season (August to September) is likely to be 84 per cent of LPA (long period average) with a model error of plus or minus 8 per cent. Rainfall during August is likely to be 90 plus or minus 9 per cent of LPA as was forecast in June.
“The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 88 per cent of LPA with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent as was forecast in June,” IMD said.
Although the country has received weak rainfall, sowing overall has been good.
The first half of season gave a mixed amount of rainfall. June recorded 116 per cent of rainfall of LPA (excess) while July recorded 83 per cent, which was deficient.
Anything less than 90 per cent of LPA is termed “deficient” rainfall while 90-96 per cent of LPA is considered “below normal”. Again, rainfall at 96-104 per cent of LPA is “normal” with 104 to 110 per cent taken to be above normal. Anything over that is “excess”.
Last week, Skymet, country’s private weather forecasting agency, revised its earlier prediction and lowered its monsoon forecast from 102 per cent to 98 per cent even as it maintained that the country will receive “normal” rainfall during the year.
It has also revised its prediction for August and September.
“Cumulative rainfall for August and September forecast at 92 per cent and 112 per cent (error margin of plus/ minus 9 per cent) of their monthly LPAs, respectively,” Skymet said.