India’s GDP growth in the third quarter of the current fiscal is likely to be in the range of 6.5-7 per cent and may expand further in following three months, said a SBI research report. The SBI Ecowrap report, howver, added that the “recent developments” in the financial markets could act as a restraining factor on growth front.
“With the leading indicators also showing positivity, we expect overall GDP growth in Q3 of current fiscal could be in the higher end of 6.5-7 per cent bucket. Q4 FY18 GDP could even top 7 per cent,” it said.
India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.3 per cent in July-September quarter of the fiscal, up from 5.7 per cent in the first quarter.
As per the report, the yearly SBI Composite Index for February 2018 is at 33-month high at 55.0 (moderate growth), compared to 52.1 (moderate growth) in January 2018.
The report expects that manufacturing Gross Value Added (GVA) would be in the range of 8-10 per cent for the third quarter of 2017-18 if the current trend persists for remaining companies also.
A synchronised global growth with an uptick in commodity cycle will also help sectors like metals, textiles and even sugar, it added.
On the downside however, the Ecowrap said, “The recent developments” in financial markets could act as a restraining factor. We expect it to be a passing phase in business cycle.”
The financial markets have been impacted following a Rs 11,400 crore fraud at the country’s second largets bank PNB.