Weather forecasting agency Skymet on Tuesday said that monsoon will be slightly below normal this year. El Nino- a phenomenon associated with warming of Pacific waters- is being attributed as the key reason behind a weak monsoon. “North India, Central part of India may face monsoon deficit. Rainfall to be normal in West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh,” Skymet told BTVi. According to PTI, Weather Risk, another private forecasting agency has predicted an El Nino event this year, henceforth resulting in a negative impact on the southwest monsoon during the later part of the monsoon period.
Last month in a conversation with PTI, Skymet CEO Jatin Singh said the first half of the monsoon period may see a better rainfall than the later half. As per the Skymet estimate, regions like Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, central Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may record below average rainfall while east India, especially Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal are most likely to see normal monsoon rains throughout the season. “Evolving El Niño may start affecting the monsoon performance July onward. Nevertheless, the presence of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could help in tempering the adverse impact of El Niño,” he said.
A positive IOD is associated with cooling of Indian Ocean waters, which has an impact on the monsoon. The Skymet said pre-monsoon rains would be less during April that would eventually lead to intense heating of the land mass. “Pre-Monsoon activities may pick up the pace during May,” Singh said.