After a lull, the south-west monsoon is expected to revive, specially in the eastern region, in the next few days while other regions continue to witness dry spell for a week or so.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the quantum of monsoon rainfall across the country during June 1-July 14 has been 274.2 millimetres, which is 5% less than the benchmark of 289.5 mm arrived on the basis of a 50-year average rains.
IMD said the rainfall across all the regions is expected to be revived only by July 23 while many parts of eastern and central regions would continue to get moderate to heavy rains during the next one week.
However, Met department officials said that with the exception of north-western region, all the other regions have received less than normal rainfall till now. Besides the rainfall across the country in the first two weeks of July had been around 33% less than normal benchmark.
While June rainfall constitute 18% of the total rainfall received during monsoon (June- September) period, the showers during July (33%) and August (29%) is critical for kharif sowing.
On the regional distribution, the north-west region has received a huge 20% excess rainfall than normal benchmark while the central India has received 11% less rainfall than normal. While south peninsula has 14% less rainfall than normal so far, eastern and north-eastern regions have received 8% less rainfall than normal.
“Heavy rainfall would occur over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal and south interior Karnataka,” IMD said in its prediction for the next couple of days.
The Met department said that the south-west monsoon has been vigorous over Arunachal Pradesh and Rayalaseema and active over Assam, Meghalaya, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar and coastal Andhra Pradesh during the past 24 hours.
The kharif or summer crop sowing has jumped by more than 57% until last week in comparison to a year earlier because of widespread distribution of monsoon rains in June.
The IMD last month had revised downward its forecast of seasonal rainfall (June-September) for this year to 88% of a long-period average (LPA), from 93% reported in May. However, private forecaster Skymet has predicted a normal monsoon, with showers at 102% of the LPA.
Besides, the Met department has also predicted that the rainfall over the country is likely to be 92% of LPA during July and 90% of LPA during in August. LPA is calculated on the basis of the average annual rainfall recorded between 1951 and 2000 (89 cm) for the the June to September period.