India’s exports will likely grow at an average of 6% annually between 2025 and 2050, outpacing an almost 5% expansion in China’s during this period, according to a report by HSBC. China will still be the world’s leading exporter, and Asia is poised to be the starting point for a quadrupling of global exports to an estimated $68.5 trillion by 2050, said the report.
“Led by a burst of intra-Asian trade that will lift the region’s share of global exports to 27% by 2050 from 17% at present, the surge will mark a third wave of globalisation anchored by new technologies and increasing economic integration,” said the report, commissioned by HSBC Commercial Banking and compiled by Oxford Economics. Asia-Pacific’s share of global exports is forecast to rise from around a third in 2015 to 46% in 2050, while Western Europe’s share is projected to drop to 22% from 34%, and North America’s to fall from 11% to 9%, it added.
India’s outbound shipments, however, have plunged in recent months, as a global economic slowdown and a crash in commodity prices dented shipment value. The country’s merchandise exports dropped for
an eleventh straight month in October, declining by 17.53% from a year before to $21.35 billion.
“China should extend its lead as the world’s leading exporter, with its growing influence in Asia further extended by projects such as the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative and the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB),” the report said.
It elaborated that nimble networks of micro-multinationals that create their own specialised value chains will be at the core of a drive for prosperity that promises to take nations out of poverty and improve quality of life across the world.
“The next few years should carry the global economy into the next wave of globalisation, critically underpinned by sophisticated and pervasive digital technology that reduces international trade barriers, improves communication between cultures, levels the playing field for entrepreneurs and startups, and forms the foundation for an ‘always-on’ global economy,” the report said.