India’s exports shrank 16 percent in 2015-16, and going ahead, it is unlikely to improve in a hurry due to its close correlation with global imports, a DBS report says.
According to the global financial services major, weak global demand weighed on India’s exports. Moreover, falling commodity receipts and the real rupee strength played their part.
“Looking ahead, India’s exports are unlikely to improve in a hurry due to its close correlation with global imports,” DBS said in a research note.
Meanwhile, the World Bank and the IMF have downgraded their global growth outlook, with most of India’s key trading partners facing sluggish growth at home.
“More measures to support the trade sector are on the cards. Though they might provide short-term relief to the external sector, they are no panacea,” the report added.
Exports dipped 5.47 per cent in March to USD 22.71 billion, registering the 16th consecutive month of decline amid contraction in shipments of petroleum and engineering goods with a tepid global demand.
Trade deficit also fell to USD 5.07 billion last month as imports too contracted by 21.56 per cent to USD 27.78 billion. The trade gap – the difference between imports and exports – was USD 11.39 billion in March 2015.
While the country’s overall GDP growth has been robust and even FDI inflows have been consistently growing, exports have been its Achilles’ heel for several months now.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley also said in Washington this weekend that “there are concerns about export growth, which is declining consecutively for more than a year due to slowdown in global demand”.