Paris-based think tank OECD on Thursday said India’s economic expansion continues to firm up even as growth is easing in the neighbouring China.
The projection comes on a day when the country’s credit rating outlook has been upgraded to ‘positive’ by global agency Moody’s.
The think tank’s assessment is based on its Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) that are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend.
According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), growth is firming up in India.
“CLIs signal growth easing in China and Canada, albeit from relatively high levels. In Brazil and Russia, CLIs point to a loss in growth momentum while in India, the CLI continues to indicate firming growth,” it said in a statement.
India’s CLI has been on the rise since October 2014 and touched 99.5 in February this year.
On the basis of new GDP series, the Indian economy is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent this fiscal. This would also make India the fastest growing large economy in the world.
In 2015-16, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is pegged at 8-8.5 per cent.
While presenting the Union Budget for 2015-16, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, in February, had said that “aiming for a double-digit rate seems feasible very soon”.
OECD, which is also a grouping of mostly rich nations, noted that growth momentum is strengthening in the euro area. Italy and France are witnessing signs of a positive change in momentum.
“The outlook is for stable growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole as well as for the US, the UK and Japan. On the other hand, CLIs signal growth easing in China and Canada, albeit from relatively high levels,” the grouping said.
Meanwhile, Moody’s today revised India’s credit rating outlook to ‘positive’.
India’s sovereign rating currently stands at ‘Baa3’, the lowest investment grade — just a notch above ‘junk’ status.
The positive rating outlook reflects view that the probability has now increased that over the next 12-18 months India’s sovereign credit fundamentals would improve to levels consistent with a rating higher than the current one, Moody’s said.