Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) upgraded its forecast the monsoon to 98% of long period average (LPA) from the 96% of LPA forecasted in April. Rainfall in July is expected to be 96% of the LPA, while the August South-West monsoon rains are expected to be 99% of LPA. IMD expects the monsoon to reach Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal by June 13-14.
“The monthly rainfall across the country is likely to be 96 percent of its long-term average during July, and 99 percent of the average during August, both with a model error of 9 percent,” IMD said.
The weather department expects monsoon to be distributed in a very good fashion with the rainfall in central India during the June-September period expected to be 100% of LPA, in the South Peninsula to be 99% of LPA, in the North-Eastern parts of India to be 96% of LPA and, in the North-Western parts of India to be 96% of LPA.
Earlier last month, the Met Office had said that India is due to receive a ‘normal’ monsoon and more rainfall this year than the previous year, as the concerns over the El Nino weather condition has eased. Indian Meteorological Department defines 96%-104% rains of the long-period average as ‘normal’, that below 96% as ‘below normal’, and below 90% as ‘deficient’.
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The Met department has forecasted weak El Nino conditions in the second half of monsoon. Earlier as well IMD had forecasted that the El Nino conditions will remain neutral during monsoon season, and weaken during the second half of monsoon.
However, Weather Risk, a private weather forecasting agency, had in April predicted an El Nino event- a phenomenon associated with warming of Pacific waters- this year, which may result in a negative impact on the south-west monsoon during the later part of the monsoon period. Skymet, another private forecasting agency, had also predicted that the monsoon will be slightly below normal this year with El Nino being regarded as the key reason behind a weak monsoon forecast.