A good amount of rainfall in July cleared the accumulated deficiency for the season until now, with the the India Meteorological Department (IMD) today predicting “above normal rainfall” precipitation for the next two months.
The news augur well for agriculturists after two consecutive bad monsoon seasons. Until July 31, nearly 21 per cent of the country has received “deficient” rainfall.
According to the IMD, deficiency has reached 49 per cent in Saurashtra and Kutch region followed by Gujarat region (39), Himachal Pradesh (27), Assam and Meghalaya (26), Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Kerala (25) and Odisha (20).
Regions like Vidarbha and Marathwada, which faced acute drought crisis due to two consecutive droughts have received normal rainfall so far.
“The rainfall deficiency in June was 11 per cent, but July saw 7 per cent more rains than the normal limit. So, the accumulated deficiency of June got wiped out,” said newly appointed IMD Director General K J Ramesh.
The good news is that the next two months could see a good rainfall. August will see a “normal” rainfall while September is expected to witness “above normal” precipitation.
“Rainfall over the country as a whole during second half of southwest monsoon season (August and September) is most likely to be above normal.
“Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during second half of the season is likely to be 107 period of Long Period Average. The rainfall during August is likely to be 104 plus/minus 9 per cent of LPA as was forecasted in June,” the IMD said.
However, Weather Risk, a weather risk management company has predicted that rainfall could be “somewhat on the negative side” in northwest, northeast and east India. Rainfall is expected to be good in central India and southern peninsula, it claimed.
Anything less than 90 per cent of the LPA is termed as a “deficient” monsoon and 90-96 per cent of the LPA is rated as “below normal”. Monsoon is considered “normal” if the period is between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA.