The Indian economy will see an over three-fold expansion at USD 7.25 trillion by 2030 and clock an average growth rate of 8 per cent over the next 15 years, Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said today. In a presentation made at its Governing Council meeting — chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attended by 28 state chief ministers — here today, the government think-tank projected the size of the Indian economy.
“Our base GDP is large. If we grow at an 8 per cent average rate for the next 15 years, our GDP will be Rs 469 lakh crore by 2030 (around USD 7.25 trillion),” Panagariya told reporters. The country’s GDP stood at around USD 2.11 trillion in 2015-16, he said.
He was briefing the media after the meeting about the Aayog’s detailed presentation on a 15-year vision, 7-year strategy and 3-year action plan for the country. When asked whether the Aayog has given up hopes of double-digit growth, he said, “We could grow at 8 per cent in rupee and 10 per cent in dollar terms.”
Elaborating further on this, Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said this is an average growth rate as it could not be the same in all years. Panagariya explained, “(In my presentation) I said in 1999-2000, we were Rs 46 lakh crore (economy) at 2015-16 prices. We added Rs 91 lakh crore to this by 2015-16. We came to Rs 137 lakh crore by 2015-16… a little lower than USD 2.1 trillion.”
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On the Prime Minister’s pitch for having simultaneous elections and changing the financial year from April-March to January-December, Panagariya said the prime minister has said it is good to change the financial year to January-December because it coincides with harvest season and is good from farmers’ perspective.
He said the prime minister has asked the states to think about changing of financial year to January-December. On these matters, Kant said, “These were the suggestions made by the prime minister. One was simultaneous elections and other was financial year. We are a very large country. States also matter. They need to give their inputs.”
On state’s performance, the Niti Aayog CEO said there are 100 districts in the country which have not performed well on various parameters in the area of health, education, electricity. If these 100 districts’ performance can be improved then the country can progress well, he added. At the third meeting of the Aayog’s Governing Council today, Kant also apprised the gathering about the work done by Niti for transforming the economy and cooperation with states in the sectors of education, health, infrastructure etc.
He also asked the states to treat Niti as their outpost in Delhi. Panagariya gave an outline of the draft Action Agenda, prepared with inputs from the states, which was circulated at the meeting. In his presentation, he put forth over 300 specific action points that had been identified, covering the whole gamut of sectors.
The period of the Action Agenda coincided with the period of the 14th Finance Commission’s award. This gave stability to the funding estimates of both the Centre and states. He solicited the inputs and support of the states in taking the vision forward.
Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia made a presentation on the Goods and Services Tax (GST), explaining the benefits of the system and the way forward. He urged the chief ministers to expedite the enactment of State GST Act (S-GST).Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan made a presentation on how to double farmers’ income. He touched upon areas such as irrigation, technology generation and dissemination, policy and market reforms, e-NAM, livestock productivity etc.
Niti Aayog’s member-agriculture Ramesh Chand also elaborated on some of the steps needed for doubling farmers’ income and spoke of the various elements of the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana, such as ‘Accelerated Irrigation Benefits Programme’, ‘Har Khet Ko Pani’, and ‘Per Drop, More Crop’. The Niti Aayog’s document titled “India 2031-32: Vision, Strategy and Action Plan” says “new India awaits two wheeler or car, air conditioner and white goods for nearly all”.
According to Panagariya’s presentation, India’s per capita GDP will rise by Rs 2 lakh in 2031-32 from 2015-16.
India’s per capita GDP is currently Rs 1,06,589 and will reach Rs 3,14,776 in 2031-32, it added. India’s urban population will rise by 22 crore in 2031-32 to 60 crore from 2011’s figure of 37.7 crore.
Central and state expenditure will rise by Rs 92 lakh crore in 2031-32 to Rs 130 lakh crore from Rs 38 lakh crore in 2015-16.