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Avinash D Persaud
The IMF semi-annual review is out and Oliver Blanchard, the IMF Chief Economist is quoted saying: “A decrease in China’s current account surplus would help increase demand and sustain the US recovery.
I was in New Delhi last week, speaking at a conference organised by ICRIER and the think tanks, Brussels-based Bruegel and French-based CEPII.
In 1971, as currency speculation tore apart the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates, the Nobel Laureate economist James Tobin proposed a small tax on foreign exchange transactions, to put “sand in the wheels” of the market.
The failure of bank risk models was inevitable. Worse, it was predictable. In grave danger of sounding incredibly immodest, I, and others, predicted it a few years back in a series of articles and lectures including Banks put themselves at risk in Basel, Financial Times, October 17,...
The economic data shows a gathering recovery around the world. My instinct is that this recovery is what the crude London traders would call a ‘dead cat bounce’.
The economic transformation of India rests on three things. Macro economists like myself get agitated about issues of exchange rate policy, interest rates or the institutional structure between the RBI and the securities regulator.
I recall in the early years of the crisis, being invited to attend an informal meeting in Washington of the Financial Stability Forum of international regulators where a very senior US official explained that the problem in the US was that there was too much regulatory overlap.
The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, has delivered his semi-annual “Humphrey-Hawkins” Testimony to the US Congress on monetary policy and the state of the US economy.
Economic adjustment is highly frustrating for economic commentators. It takes so long to arrive that you lose much credibility arguing it will come. In the process you come to be viewed as a slightly embarrassing eccentric of the old-school that just doesn’t “get” the New Economy.
