The LTCG formulation is not only flawed in design, but also likely to yield very little tax revenue. At the same time, it manifestly increases the discretionary power of the taxman and this has its own set of governance problems.
Budget 2018: Budget 2019 can best be described as one made possible by an ongoing revolution in tax collection. This revolution is beginning to make possible another revolution in income transfers to the bottom third of the population.
If the latest World Economic Forum (WEF) report is to be believed, 60% of the Indian population was poor, according to the World Bank poverty line of PPP $3.2 per person per day.
The implied savings estimates for India, derived from Piketty estimates of income distribution, do not conform to any known model of savings behaviour
A direct outcome of DeMo is a sharp increase in FY18 in tax buoyancy. Given this “unexpected” result, will the knee-jerk critics of demo please stand down?
The IMF forecast is for AE inflation rates to stay “constant” at around 1.6% in 2018, before inching towards 2% in 2022.
Were high, and accelerating, real interest rates responsible for the political result in Gujarat? No way to know for sure, but…
Make no mistake about it. The Gujarat election result is important, and particularly so for the Congress.
The first year of operation of the MPC has imposed considerable costs on the economy with very few benefits. What explains MPC’s decisions?
Today is the first anniversary of an unprecedented and bold political and economic experiment—demonetisation (DM).
An ill-informed remedy can only aggravate a patient’s illness, not make her get well.
In what will go down (sadly) as the most perfect anticipation, I had said that (Data vs. gossip: Who should win, hereafter DvG, goo.gl/QDZai5, FE). “My plea… – let us debate evidence, and debate how to interpret the facts. Let us not decline into ideology, and worse, into personal attacks. The economy should not be […]
In a highly personalised attack on finance minister Arun Jaitley, ex-finance minister Yashwant Sinha made the following claims about the Indian economy (under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi).
Inflation is down by 700 bps since 2013, and policy rates have declined by 200 bps—and you are still wondering why GDP growth is slow?
It is more than four years since my column “Tell me I am Mad,” The Financial Express, June 22, 2013, was published.
Times have changed, and we have to change accordingly. It wasn’t so long ago that the central concern of RBI, and the major macroeconomic concern in India, was inflation.
The old elite cannot be expected to give up their privileges so easily. They will try to derail the structural transformation happening in India & object at every turn.
It is politics that best explains the phenomena of farmer riots amidst rising prosperity of farmers
The MPC meets June 6 and 7, for their fifth meeting to decide the course of monetary policy and exchange rates.
In the movie The Graduate, Dustin Hoffman gets advice about the future from an experienced old hand. Only one word was needed to describe the future: Plastic. Narendra Modi-led BJP has just finished three years and I have two words to best describe Modi’s tenure 2014-17 and beyond: Structural Change.
The Indian economy has likely gone through a mega structural break experience via demonetisation.
PM Narendra Modi has nothing to gain and everything to lose by pursuing a divisive social agenda; he has to worry both about the enemy within, and the enemy outside
With CPI inflation at near-historic lows, according to the ‘RBI law of mean reversion’, the future means high inflation
There was near universal expectation by politicians, pollsters, opinion and exit polls that the BJP, eighteen months after their resounding Lok Sabha victory, would romp home in majority glory. It was not to be. Almost the entire class failed.
Amidst much fanfare, and great expectations, India joined the rest of the world by forming a monetary policy committee (MPC) to decide on matters pertaining to monetary policy.
The Budget has been extra-careful and conservative about the impact of DeMo on the economy. It is very likely that GDP growth for FY17 will close in on a number above 7%. It is probably the most brilliant economic and political document since the path-breaking 1991 Budget.
There has been a lot of well-intentioned talk about the need for employment growth in manufacturing in India. Most of us (including myself) have attributed the low rate of employment growth to antique, and counter-productive, labour laws.