The Trump administration’s recent protectionist measures, aimed at china & South korea, can spark retaliatory measures that will only leave americans worse off.
Real economies rest on asset prices distorted by the execssively accommodative policies of central bank; glacial normalisation only prolongs this dependency
Congressional Republicans’ proposed tax cuts—masquerading as tax reform—are no recipe to “make America great again”.
China’s principal contradiction—tension unbalanced & inadequate development and people’s need for a better life—flags what its long-term strategy is missing
Any action by the US against Chinese imports will effectively translate as a tax hike, and counter-measures by China will hit US exports hard.
The Chinese economy is drawing support from strong sources of cyclical resilience in early 2017. The 11.3% y-o-y gain in exports recorded in June stands in sharp contrast with earlier years, which were adversely affected by a weaker post-crisis global recovery.
Monetary accommodation set the stage for Japan’s demise; BoJ compounded the problem by embracing quantitative easing.
For the past seven years, I have taught a popular class at Yale, called “The Next China.”
While some healing of an $80 trillion global economy is now evident, progress needs to be seen through a different lens than used in past cycles.
Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. This, of course, is very much at odds with Western conventional wisdom, which has long expected a hard landing in China.
It is a blatant protectionist bias that collides head-on with America’s reliance on foreign saving and trade deficits
A post-crisis world economy without Chinese growth would be in grave difficulty
The final day of the summer marked the start of yet another season of futile policymaking by two of the world’s major central banks—the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
Despite all the hand-wringing over the vaunted China slowdown, the Chinese economy remains the single-largest contributor to world GDP growth.
With world trade shifting to a decidedly lower trajectory, political resistance to globalisation has intensified
US policy is keeping the country’s consumption binge going, despite the implications for its saving imperative.
The real reason behind the massive multilateral trade deficit is that Americans don’t save
The shift in focus from consumer-led rebalancing to supply-side reforms is premature.
Focus on the demand side of crisis-battered economies, where a debt-rejection syndrome is impairing growth
Its strong tertiary sector and massive forex reserves provide a buffer against any crisis and social instability
Today’s Fed inherits the deeply entrenched moral hazard of the asset economy
It has to address the causes of households’ high precautionary saving and low discretionary spending.
Inflation-targeting was once essential to limit runaway price growth. Today, it is counterproductive
The US’s unease with a changing China reflects a failure to address its core economic problems
The country could inadvertently find itself mired in something comparable to what Minxin Pei has long called a “trapped transition”
Without powerful innovations, sustaining productivity growth will be an uphill battle
Unless the US fixes its savings problem, restricting trade with manipulators will not help remedy trade deficit.