Over the past couple of years, the market has been in a mood to take all news as good news. Today, it may well be the reverse
Love and joy, more than money and power, will be the most valuable tradables in the new world
For seven trading sessions, markets everywhere have been throwing rocks at investors and nobody can say when it will end.
There are many analysts who are saying (hoping) that the Fed will not raise rates three times in 2018, as it has said it will. If it does raise rates more sharply and/or more often—given the US economy is as close to full employment as it can get—once the inflation pony turns into a horse, look out!
There will be higher rupee volatility than what prevailed in 2017—it will be valued within the range of 61.5-70 to the dollar.
Clearly, shorting bitcoin is a BIG no-no. What about going long? Well, in my view, the risk, while again limited to your investment, is huge and, again, unmeasurable. With each passing day, technology is becoming less and less secure
The rupee’s downward turn would be triggered by some major global conflagration, possibly a global equity collapse early next year.
Many years ago, when the rupee was constantly under threat to weaken, RBI often railed against speculators and, indeed, acted from time to time, for instance prohibiting domestic companies from rebooking cancelled forward contracts, since it was clear that some companies were—rather than managing their risk—simply speculating by buying (booking forward against imports) and selling (cancelling) dollars.
With both the populist right and the populist left becoming less relevant, a new consensus is now certain, likely led by Europe
The deplorable state of politics globally suggests that a structural change is in the offing—it is always darkest before dawn.
When I was a child, I read a famous story about Chicken Little, a little chicken who was wandering around the farmyard one day when an acorn fell on his head.
If the Dodd-Frank separation of trading from lending is emasculated, it could unleash the dogs of war in the financial markets
As an USA (Unofficial Self-appointed Advisor) to the prime minister, I have prepared this speech on the subject of Making India Great Again for next week’s Mann Ki Baat.
A satirical take on what US president Donald Trump should be talking about, and doing.
Although rupee’s steady to strong behaviour is reducing costs every day, the fear that it may suddenly fall increases the longer it remains steady.
There appears to be a serious disconnect between the Indian equity market, which has gained 35% in the last 15 months and the mood on the ground. This is quite different from the last equity rally, right after Modi’s Lok Sabha victory in 2014, when the market shot 35% higher in just 12 months. At […]
The “greed is good” desecration of the American dream, which began accelerating since the early 1980’s, has ended—Wham! Bam!—with the election of Donald Trump as president.
RBI is finding its hands tied on intervention because of the extraordinary overhang of rupee liquidity courtesy demonetisation.
On hedging for the rupee’s value, companies must move beyond simple ladder-type strategies towards more sophisticated programmes.
Many—perhaps, most—companies in India consistently leave a lot of money on the table through increased import costs and/or lower export realisations because of weak FX risk management processes.
The market knows this, which may be why the hot rally right after Donald Trump’s victory appears to have petered out.
Given the huge uncertainty of what Trump wants to do and what he can actually do, it is likely that the Fed will remain sometimes behind and sometimes ahead of the inflation curve. This could prevent any further substantial dollar strength.
The most significant event in the Indian FX market in 2016 was RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan’s surprise decision to demit his office before his term was up.
RBI credibility coming into question will ensure that the decline will be sharper than in previous episodes
The tragic battle between Ratan Tata and Cyrus Mistry is destroying the soul of Tata Sons day by day.
When he won the election in a landslide, his popularity was off the charts; like a fool, even I believed that since his clear dream was to be remembered as India’s greatest leader, he would have to do only the right things.
To kick-start growth, the US president-elect will immediately look to clean up the country’s tax policy