While RIL doesnt report Ebitda for its E&P business, analysts put the Q1FY14 number at R750 crore based on the likely depreciation norms for the E&P business. In which case, while RILs likely Q4FY13 Ebitda from Indian E&P operations was R970 crore and higher than that for the US shale business R854 crore, this has reversed in Q1FY14 likely E&P Ebitda was R742 crore versus R937 crore for the US shale business, which is around two-year old.
RILs investments in US shale, its Q1FY14 media release says, are $6 billion as of date. The companys KG-D6 Basin investments are $10 billion in addition, another $3.5 billion was spent on other blocks where no gas was found; company officials say another $8 billion of financing costs need to be added to this. Compared with this, it has recovered $9.2 billion from gas sales so far.
Though RIL has drawn up ambitious investment plans of $6 billion for other blocks in the KG Basin in addition, the company estimates a financing cost of $3.5 billion and opex of $6 billion a lot depends on the price of gas.
Company officials say it is still in the red on existing operations it has recovered under half of what it has spent so far and will not invest in new operations unless gas prices are raised to between $8 and $10 per mmBtu.
If that is not done, this means shale operations will continue to be more profitable than the Indian E&P ones for many years to come.
In its annual report for FY13, the company noted: With improvement in the US gas prices and continued focus on the liquids-rich acreage in the Eagle Ford area, Reliance is expected to grow this business sustainably over the next few years. RIL has three joint ventures (JVs) for production of shale gas in the US with Pioneer Natural Resources, Carrizo Oil & Gas and Chevron.
Production from the KG-D6 basin is expected to average 14-15 mscmd in Q1FY14, down 4-5 mmcsd from Q4FY13 and lower than the average output of 26 mscmd in fiscal 2013.
In FY13, gas production from KG-D6 plummeted nearly 40% to 336.0 Bcf from 551.3 Bcf a year earlier. Production has also been falling at the companys Panna-Mukta and Tapti fields.
RIL currently sells gas at $5.73 per mmBtu from the Panna-Mukta fields, $5.57 pre mmBtu from Tapti and $4.20 per mmBtu from KG-D6.