By 2013, the country would have more than 750 million mobile connections; therefore the SMS usage per user would essentially drop.
However, overall large base of mobile connections would support this SMS volume. "Strong organic growth continues in Asias developing markets, with marginal subscribers turning to low-cost messaging as an entry-level service.
In the mature markets of the Asia-Pacific region, SMS has seen sustained healthy growth as a result of steady price declines and increasingly generous SMS and data bundles," said Madhusudan Gupta, senior research analyst at Gartner. SMS contributes around 8% to value added services (VAS), which in turn contributes 10-12% of an operators revenue.
SMS growth, however, will be slow as mobile markets approach saturation and other types of messaging, including mobile email and mobile instant messaging, become more widely adopted.
Integrated messaging clients on handsets will facilitate adoption of alternative messaging services, as will the use of alternative rich-messaging services on smartphones.