Although there is no weather system over Mumbai favourable for rainfall and the monsoon is currently weak, it will see a revival in Mumbai by July 3-4, said V K Rajeev, IMD Mumbai director. Monsoon is in no way affected by the El Nino effect, but cyclone Nanauk did have an effect by taking away the moisture in early June.
Colaba faced a shortfall of 423 mm in June this year, while Santacruz faced a shortfall of 352 mm, according to the IMD. Santacruz experienced 87.3 mm of rainfall this June, making it the second lowest rainfall recorded at this observatory in June since 1951, whereas Colaba has seen just 55.2 mm of rainfall this June, the lowest in June since 1951.
Even the number of rainy days this June is below the average of 14 days, with Santacruz recording rainfall on just 10 days, while Colaba recording rainfall on 11 days most of it in the second and third week of June.
However, IMD officials say deficient rainfall in June alone does not necessary indicate a bad season. Monsoon data from June to September for the country recorded for more than 100 years show that there were several years when June rainfall have been deficient, but by the end of season, rainfall reached its normal level, said K S Hosalikar, Deputy Director-General of Meteorology, IMD Mumbai.