Macquarie sees Narendra Modi's BJP + allies winning 230 seats in Lok Sabha polls

Written by Reuters | New Delhi | Updated: May 12 2014, 23:11pm hrs
Narendra ModiNarendra Modi-led BJP and its allies would need 273 seats to clinch a majority to from a new government at the Centre. (PTI)
Macquarie says markets are pricing in the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party winning 230 seats in the ongoing elections, calling that its "base case" as well.

Macquarie estimates a number around that range could spark gains of 5-10 percent over one month in Indian shares, while a number above 240 seats would spark 15-20 percent gains.

By contrast, should BJP and allies clinch less than 200 seats, Macquarie says markets could fall 15-20 per cent over the next month.

BJP and its allies would need 273 seats to clinch a majority, although analysts say a number near it would comfort markets and raise the prospect of a more stable coalition.

Macquarie says the drivers of a rally after positive elections results could continue to be cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials and infrastructure.

Its top-five recommended cyclical stocks to buy for election results include Larsen & Toubro Ltd, Axis Bank Ltd , State Bank of India, Adani Port and Special Economic Zone Ltd and IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd.