India lowers 2014 monsoon rains forecast to 87 per cent

Written by Reuters | New Delhi | Updated: Aug 13 2014, 02:03am hrs
Monsoon rainsMonsoon rain forecast has been lowered for June-September.
The government today downgraded this season's rain forecast from "below normal" to "deficient" despite monsoon picking up recently but ruled out any possibility of drought.

The downgrade from 93 to 87 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), a 7 per cent decline, was done due to shortage of rain during June, which was 43 per cent of the LPA.

"The latest estimate suggests the 2014 southwest monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 87 per cent of the LPA," Jitendra Singh, Minister of State for Earth Science told a news conference here after reviewing the second half of the Long Range Forecast for the season.

"The season rainfall (June to September) over the country as a whole is likely to be 87 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent.

"There is 68 per cent probability for the season rainfall over the country as a whole to be deficient (less than 90 per cent of LPA). The probability for below normal rainfall (90-96 per cent of LPA) is 24 per cent," the Indian Meteorological Department said in a statement.

This indicates that the country is expected to receive "deficient" rainfall, contrary to the prediction it had earlier made about "below normal" monsoon.

"The figure went down due to shortfall of rain in June, which was 43 per cent. Although the monsoon picked up in July which saw 90 per cent of rainfall and then in the first half of August.

"For the second half of August and September, we are expecting 95 per cent of rainfall. Despite this, the shortfall in June was too much to match our prediction," said Shailesh Nayak, secretary of MOES.

Singh, however, ruled out any possibility of drought. "There is no scientific evidence to suggest that there is drought. There is no reason to be alarmist about it. Overall it's not a pessimistic picture. As per the IMD, conditions of drought like situation are reviewed by September 30," he said.

Nayak said that it was up to the Agriculture Ministry to take a call on drought. Monsoon is crucial for the economy as 60 per cent of the agriculture in the country is rainfed.

According to the Laxman Singh Rathore, Director General of the IMD, Northwest India is likely to be worst hit this year and is expected to receive 76 per cent of rainfall, while Central India is expected to receive 89 per cent, the Southern peninsula 87 per cent and Northeast India is expected to receive 93 per cent of the rainfall.