In the case of the fiscal deficit, for instancetax-to-GDP fell from 11.9% of GDP in FY08 to a likely 10.3% this fiscalincrease in growth rates will help raise revenues. A slowing of corporate profits, for instance, has translated into lower tax-to-GDP ratios for corporate taxes; ditto for the slowing of top line growth and its impact on excise and other collections. And thanks to poor policy that has resulted in large petroleum under-recoveries, corporate tax collections have taken another big hit. Assuming the oil PSUs end up bearing a subsidy burden of even R90,000 crore in a year, thats a lower corporate tax of around 0.2-0.3% of GDP.
The more immediate problemsince this years fiscal deficit looks broadly on courseis that of the CAD which, as Moodys pointed out Monday, rose from an average of less than 1% of GDP in the first half of the 2000s to a peak of 5.3% of GDP in the quarter ending September 2012. And, thanks to a slowing in FDI inflows and a jump in the CAD, FDI which financed over 100% of GDP in FY08, today finances just a fourth of the CAD, with the rest being financed by volatile flows. While short-term debt has risen from 16.2% of total debt in FY07 to 22.5% in FY12, the share of volatile capital flows to reserves has risen, RBIs Financial Stability Report points out, from 67.3% at the end of March 2011 to 81.3% at the end of June 2012. Whats more interesting is whats behind the rising CAD. Much has already been written about the role of goldoil imports are, erroneously, taken as a given even though large subsidies have driven up consumptionbut few have taken into account the role of coal imports. Coal imports used to average about 0.5 % of GDP in the pre-Lehman period. But thanks to a ramp up in power production that has been matched by Coal Indias inability to produce enough coal, coal imports have averaged 0.9% of GDP over the past two yearsas a consequence, one fifth of the deterioration of the CAD is because of coal over the last two years. Clearing coal blocks fast is an obvious policy imperative, but the more important one is to allow private sector players in. Next weeks budget will be an important signal to where the twin deficits are headed, but the real stuff depends on policy actions through the year.