While Thursdays big bang reforms were expected by the markets, the problem is that they once again bring the reforms process to where it has been for a long time: against the great wall of Parliament, where the Opposition seems to have decided not to allow major Bills to go through. Indeed, if you leave out some announcements like the clearing of 5 new international airportswhich, in itself, is a big movenone of the others are worth anything unless passed by Parliament. And the BJP, for its part, has already made it clear it is not in favour of hiking FDI limits.
The Cabinet also cleared the 12th Plan which has an ambitious 8.2% growth target and whats important is that it is based on a capital formation level of 37% and a savings level of 34.2% of GDP. Since current capital formation is around 35% and savings 31%, the significant step up depends on a sharp fall in government dissavingsoverall savings in the country rose when government dissavings fell and fell when the dissavings started rising after 2008-09. Though the government is armed with two big reports in recent weeks with a large reforms agenda, whats important is not to let this get too daunting. After the R5 hike in diesel prices and capping the LPG subsidy, the government is moving in the right direction with its plans to start delivering scholarships and LPG subsidies through Aadhar soonremoving 1-2 crore fake/duplicate LPG connections, for instance, will cut subsidies by R2,000-4,000 crore. The next important step is to remain focussed on clearing some big, stuck projects through the National Investment Board. Needless to say, with the markets still sweet, fast-tracking disinvestment is a low-hanging fruit.