Much of this, of course, is easily corroborated from other data. Passenger cars grew just 1% in April to November while commercial vehicles contracted 5.6%. Deposits growth in the fortnight ended December 28 grew at 11.1%, a lower growth than that seen in many years. Exports, similarly, continued to fall for the 8th straight month, though the rate of fall seems to have slowedDecember exports fell just 1.9% yoy compared to a fall of 4.2% in November. That November's 0.1% contraction was on an unusually high growth of November 2011 suggests some bottoming out.
Whether the sector will grow faster in FY144.4% according to Citibank and 5.4% according to Crisilwill, of course, largely depend on how the monsoons fare since new investments continue to fall while the number of stalled projects hasnt stopped rising. Which means that, apart from FY14 industrial growth being half the 20-year average, it will essentially be a weak one, driven largely by consumption demand that, in turn, will be driven by a possible normal monsoon next year and a likely increase in government expenditure in the run up to elections. More important, unless the investment climate starts improvingNHAI taking its fight with the environment ministry all the way up to the Supreme Court suggests we have a long way to gothe agriculture-driven boost in FY14 cant even be replicated.