Interesting analysis by BNP Paribas Equities Research team (excerpted on the oped page today) identifies some of these faultlines that can trip up the Xi presidency. First the maths: between 1979 and 2008, roughly 4.8 percentage points (ppt) of Chinas 9.9% growth could be attributed to its higher capital formation, around 1.2% to the increase in the labour force, and a massive 3.9 ppt to the increase in productivity. According to the BNP analysis, with the labour force ageing and its productivity no longer rising as fast, labour will contribute just 0.3 ppt in the next decade, capital formation another 3.2 ppt and productivity around 3.5 ppt, taking Chinas growth to around 7% per annumproductivity, however, is notoriously fickle and depends on a host of reforms over the next decade.
A host of reform areas can be mentioned, once you recognise the export-cum-investment led model has largely been exhausted for a variety of reasonsfrom increasing trade protectionism to the rising renminbi (30% against the dollar in real terms since 2005)but nothing quite tells the story like whats happening in Chinas labour market where real growth in wages has been outpacing GDP growth over the last decade. In 2005, hourly compensation in US manufacturing was around 40 times that of China; today, it is around 15 times and is likely to shrink to 11 times by 2015the worlds largest chopsticks manufacturer, for instance, is now located in the US, not in China. Which is why the share of exports to Chinas GDP has now started falling. With the rich-to-poor ratio getting a lot worse over the years, and the rich propensity to consume lower than the poor, shifting to a consumption-based society isnt going to be easy. The damage to the environment is seriousjust a third of waste water discharged meets specified standardswhich is why the Partys Wednesday resolution mentions ecological awareness and ecological progress so many times. Protests against industrialisation have risen dramatically and, for the first time in recent years, new project starts are lagging completed projects. Reforming the not-very-efficient state-owned-enterprises has now become critical if China is to encourage innovation and private enterprises The list is a long one, but vital if Xi is to rise to Hus target of doubling per capita GDP by 2020.