In the medium term, Indian manufacturing will have to get quite competitive. As per the agreement, when the FTA gets fully functional in 2016, tariffs will be eliminated on 80% of traded items in a phased manner, tariffs on 10% of items (sensitive items) will not be touched and the tariffs on the rest will be brought down to 5%. While India can be more competitive in chemicals and pharmaceuticals and mineral fuels, Asean scores in machinery and electrical equipmentin automobiles, the picture is not so clear-cut as both have their own competitive advantages. Apart from the onus this puts on Indias manufacturing sector, this means the government will have to do its bit as well since, more often than not, lack of land, rigid labour laws, unavailability of world-class infrastructure and general bureaucratic lethargy are what prevent firms from acquiring global quality. While India stands to gain from the greater access to Asean markets, the bigger gains will undoubtedly arise when the Asean+6 agreement gets formalised.
At the end of the day, while global trade is slowingIndias exports have been falling steadily for seven monthsintra-regional trade offers better potential, especially since it is clear multilateral talks are not going to succeed till the global economy starts picking up. While intra-regional trade is a significant part of both European and the Americas global tradeit is 25% in the case of the AseanIndias trade with her neighbours is minuscule, partly an indictment of the way in which Indias neighbours view her. A Mekong river-type joint development, for instance, looks near impossible between India and her neighbours that share the same river waters.