Commodity Market report: Gold prices to remain in range for week

Updated: Aug 2 2014, 23:56pm hrs
Gold futures edged up on Friday, but still remained within close distance of six-week lows as Thursday's data showing that U.S. unemployment benefits remained near a post-recession bottom last week continued to weigh. Gold futures were likely to find support at $1,276.20 an ounce and resistance at $1,298.80. Today's Gold is standing at $1284, minor change from its previous close. We believe the overall bearish trend to remain intact for the day however; volatility is definitely expected today ahead of the US non-farm payrolls number. We expect Gold prices to remain in range for the week as upcoming data can keep the prices in range.

Over all, MCX Gold October future is in consolidation and sustaining above the level of 28000.So for the coming week, we are expecting buying from the lower levels. For the coming week 28100/27900 will act as a major support whereas 28700/29000 will act as a major resistance level in MCX Gold October future. For the next week in MCX Gold, trader can use buy on lower level strategy, if MCX Gold October future sustains above the levels of 28300 then it could test the levels 28490/28650.

Technically, MCX Silver September futures is in consolidation and sustaining in range. For the coming week 47000/48500 will act as a major resistance levels where as 43000/41000 will act as major support in MCX Silver September futures. For the next week in MCX Silver futures, traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if MCX Silver September futures sustains above 44800 then it could test the levels of 45800/ 47000.

Energy:-

Crude oil prices in the US broke below the important $100 per barrel mark yesterday while sliding further lower to $98 levels as weaker demand concerns in the US, huge fall in global equities and rise in OPEC monthly output dragged prices. WTI September expiry oil fell more than $2 on Thursday going below $98 a barrel while hitting its lowest level since March whereas Brent crude for same months delivery too closed lower to $106 per barrel, marginally lower by 0.45%. barrel. We expect Crude oil to move down over higher gasoline inventories, easing fear in Iraq and Libya.

For the coming week 5700/5550 will act as major supports levels whereas 6100/6250 will act as major resistance in MCX Crude oil August futures. For the next week, trader can use sell on higher level strategy, if MCX Crude August future sustain below 5950 levels then it could test the levels 5860/5720.

Base Metal:-

Copper rose to over two week high in the afternoon session on Friday after robust China's official manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) spurting hope of improved demand from the world's biggest economy. Earlier in July, China's gross domestic product growth and industrial production data came better than expected indicating improved economic condition in the Asia's biggest economy. China is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting to about 40% of total global demand for the red metal and major consumer of other industrial metal. Prices of base metals are also supported on expectations of upbeat manufacturing data from Euro-zone, Germany and United States later today which may provide further cues to the demand scenario from the world's top industrial metal consumers.

Trend of MCX Copper August future is in consolidation and also sustaining in range. For the coming week, it could face major resistance of 472/492 whereas 425/410 could be a major support in MCX Copper. For the next week trader may follow buy on lower levels strategy, if MCX Copper August future sustain above 440 levels then it could test the level of 452/468.

By Vivek Gupta Director Research, CapitalVia Global Research Limited