Commodity market outlook; Fundamental & Technical Outlook on Commodities

New Delhi | Updated: Mar 30 2014, 04:09am hrs
CommodityData on last week showed the U.S. economy grew a bit faster
Gold prices moved down further as US showed some sign of improvement by showing lower Unemployment claims and revised GDP numbers. Data on last week showed the U.S. economy grew a bit faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter and new claims for jobless aid dropped to a near four-month low last week. Ukraine won a $27-billion international financial lifeline, after Russia's annexation of Crimea, while Moscow's economy minister acknowledged that his country's growth would slow dramatically as funds flee abroad. Physical demand from Asian countries like China and India has also been down. Gold prices are expected to move down further after positive US numbers and lack of demand in international and domestic market.

Over all, MCX Gold April future is in consolidation and sustaining around lower levels. For the coming week 27700/27340 will act as a major support whereas 28720/29100 will act as a major resistance level in MCX Gold April future. For the next week in MCX Gold, trader can use sell on higher level strategy, if MCX Gold April future sustain below the levels of 28070 then it could test the levels 27970/27700.

Technically, MCX Silver May futures is in consolidation and sustaining around lower levels. For the coming week 43500/44800 will act as major resistance levels where as 40000/38536 will act as major support in MCX Silver May futures. For the next week in MCX Silver futures, traders can use sell on higher level strategy, if MCX Silver May futures sustains below 42400 then it could test the levels of 41500/ 40000.

Energy: Crude oil futures rose nearly three-week highs on Friday, as still supported by data on Thursday showing that U.S. jobless claims fell to the lowest level since late November last week, while U.S. economic fourth quarter growth was revised higher. Oil prices also remained supported after the U.S. and the European Union agreed on Wednesday to work together to prepare tougher sanctions against Russia and to make Europe less dependent on Russian gas.

For the coming week 5990/5700 will act as major supports levels whereas 6330/6500 will act as major resistance in MCX Crude oil April futures. For the next week, trader can use buy on lower level strategy, if MCX Crude April future sustain above 6155 levels then it could test the levels 6225/6330.

Base Metal: Copper prices moved up in London, US and India as optimism of China going for some form of stimulus helped pushing Copper demand bit higher. Positive data from US also helped pushing some demand as optimism grew after revised positive GDP numbers. China's biggest banks showed milder-than-expected signs of financial stress from loan defaults and shrinking profit margins. Investors will now be watching for more detail on global manufacturing health in data due next week. We expect copper prices to move in a range to higher for the week as positive US data and optimism in Chinese economy over stimulus can push the prices higher.

Trend of MCX Copper April future is in consolidation and also sustaining around lower levels. For the coming week, it could face major resistance of 428.85/440.70 whereas 396/387 could be a major support in MCX Copper. For the next week trader may follow buy on lower levels strategy, if MCX Copper future sustain above 407.70 levels then it could test the level of 414/425.

By Vivek Gupta, Director Research, CapitalVia Global Research Limited