More than the weak profit numbers, what will weigh on analysts as they rework their earnings estimates is the cautious commentary from most managements. Karl Slym, managing director Tata Motors, has said he doesnt see any immediate revival in the market. AM Naik, chairman, Larsen & Toubro, has said he doesnt see an upturn in investments this year.
The relatively small order books at engineering firms indicates that the capex cycle is far from turning. The order backlog at engineering firm BHEL, for instance, was smaller at the end of FY13 than it was a year earlier, corroborating data from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy that showed new project starts fell 57% y-o-y in the March quarter, the lowest levels seen since June 2005.
While profits shrink, the debt is piling up fast enough to make bankers edgy. Jaiprakash Associates standalone net debt is R22,000 crore while its consolidated net debt is R57,000 crore; Adani Power, which posted the highest ever quarterly losses of R534 crore in the fourth quarter, has a consolidated net debt of R36,200 crore; Reliance Communications, which has now reported a flat Ebitda for 13 straight quarters, has a net debt of around R38,000 crore; while GVK Infra, which reported a loss of R170 crore and could bleed for two more years, has borrowings of R17,000 crore. Reliance Power, which earned a profit of R1,012 crore in FY13, has a total debt of close to R30,000 crore. Essar Oil, which posted an Ebitda of R3,042 crore and a net loss of R1,069 crore in FY13, has net borrowings of just under R20,000 crore.
Net sales for the sample rose at a subdued 5.6% y-o-y compared with 9.4 % y-o-y in the third quarter and 11.9% y-o-y in the second quarter. While softening prices of commodities has brought down raw material costs the share of raw materials to sales has fallen total expenditure has risen more than the top line, squeezing operating profit margins, which fell 120 basis points y-o-y.
Many analysts are forecasting flat profits for Reliance Industries this year while trimming earnings estimates for cement manufacturers as they believe demand and, consequently, pricing power could come off as the construction sector sees little activity. Pricing power is fast vanishing; a fall in steel realisations drove down Jindal Steel and Powers profits by 35%in the March quarter. However, the reopening of the 100 or so iron mines in Karnataka will ease supplies of the raw material to sectors like steel.
Also, the fragile recovery in the global economy together with regulatory headwinds in the US could queer the pitch for Indias IT players. While players like Tata Consultancy Services are able to combat the challenges, others have been less successful. Consumer spends are weakening; Asian Paints, for instance, had a dull quarter, missing estimates by a wide margin as its consolidated net profit fell 3% y-o-y even as sales rose just 7% y-o-y and margins contracted 100 basis points.